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3 年后 Etsy 的股票会在哪里?

由于人们被困在家里,实体店购物成为一种不受欢迎(或不可能)的选择,Etsy(ETSY -0.01%)从冠状病毒大流行中受益匪浅。活跃买家、活跃卖家和商品总成交量 (GMV) 飙升。但是经济重新开放,以及我们目前正在经历的通货膨胀时期,已经对企业造成了明显的伤害。

当我们试图退后一步并专注于长期发展时,三年后 Etsy 的股票会在哪里?让我们仔细看看这个顶级电子商务市场的前景。

差异化是关键

如果不首先关注是什么让这个市场如此有价值,我们就不能真正谈论 Etsy。根据最近的一项调查,该平台上 87% 的买家表示,该平台上有他们在其他地方找不到的商品。想想那种情况有多强大。它立即展示了企业存在的初衷,以及它所拥有的竞争地位。

电子商务的竞争无疑是激烈的,但 Etsy 对差异化的关注对其持久成功至关重要。这一关键特征是投资者可能希望对其未来保持乐观的原因。

截至 3 月 31 日,Etsy 拥有 790 万活跃卖家,同比增长 3.8%。乍一看,这一收益似乎并不令人印象深刻,但考虑到该公司在 2022 年 4 月将向这些卖家收取的费用从 5% 提高到 6.5%。事实上,Etsy 并没有失去大量卖家,反而增加了一些卖家,这是它提供的价值的一个明显标志。

这预示着管理层未来有能力行使其定价权。这是沃伦巴菲特肯定会欣赏的。

强大的财务状况

2022 年,Etsy 罕见地出现了 6.94 亿美元的净亏损。但这是由于 10 亿美元的一次性商誉减值费用,以减记其先前收购 Depop 和 Elo7 的价值,管理层承认它为这些较小的在线市场支付的价格严重过高。不过,通常情况下,Etsy 已经证明它可以成为一家稳定盈利的企业。

不包括去年,在 2016 年至 2021 年期间,该业务能够将其营业利润率从 4.8% 扩大到 20%。这是一个明确的指标,表明 Etsy 在发展过程中可以非常好地扩展。这通常是因为技术和数据基础设施在很大程度上得到了发展,因此每笔额外的交易都可能带来高利润。

管理团队认为 Etsy 的潜在市场是巨大的。据估计,该公司七个核心市场(美国、加拿大、澳大利亚、英国、德国、法国和印度)的销售额为 4660 亿美元。如果企业能够抓住这个看似巨大的机会,GMV 和收入肯定会上升。由于 Etsy 的轻资本商业模式,其利润率随着时间的推移不断扩大就是例证,利润和自由现金流也可能会上升。

耐心是有回报的

在较高的层面上,很容易得出 Etsy 是一家稳固企业的结论。显然需要提供一个有价值的在线市场,买卖双方可以通过真正差异化的产品进行联系。而且,这种商业模式一直非常有利可图。

该股价虽然在过去五年中上涨了 176%,但目前比 2021 年 11 月的峰值低了 69%。与许多其他成长型科技股一样,Etsy 面临着大流行后消费者行为正常化和宏观经济逆风的完美风暴,专家预测短期内会出现衰退。

设定逆势上限并决定买入一只下跌的股票可能会让人伤脑筋,尤其是当基础业务也面临急剧放缓时。但对于愿意并能够等待投资成功的耐心投资者来说,Etsy 可能会在未来三年内提供可观的回报。

Neil Patel没有持有上述任何股票的头寸。The Motley Fool 在 Etsy 有职位并推荐。Motley Fool 有披露政策

电子商务的竞争无疑是激烈的,但 Etsy 对差异化的关注对其持久成功至关重要。这一关键特征是投资者可能希望对其未来保持乐观的原因。

Source: https://www.fool.com/investing/2023/06/08/where-will-etsy-stock-be-in-3-years/

如果中国经济进一步停滞,美国股市将处于火线


这个故事的一个版本首先出现在 CNN Business 的 Before the Bell 时事通讯中。不是订户?您可以在这里注册。您可以通过单击同一链接收听时事通讯的音频版本。


纽约 CNN——


最近几周,中国经济活动陷入疲软,香港股市因此徘徊在熊市区域。


这对于在中国有重大风险敞口的美国公司来说也是个坏消息——如果情况恶化,许多标准普尔 500 强公司将首先受到攻击。


正在发生的事情:经过三年严格的大流行限制措施后,中国于 12 月迅速重启经济,这被誉为推动全球增长超速发展的催化剂。


根据国际货币基金组织 最近的预测,被压抑的消费需求和世界第二大经济体制造业的复苏预计将在 2023 年推动全球约 35% 的增长。


中国的重新开放产生了积极影响:工厂在 2 月创下了近 11 年来最好的一个月,该国经济在今年第一季度增长了 4.5% 。但最近的数据显示,这种积极性可能是短暂的。


由于全球需求减弱,中国5 月份出口同比下降 7.5%。最近的数据显示,中国也在应对低于预期的消费者支出、制造业放缓和房屋销售疲软。根据官方数据,城市地区的青年失业率已达到 20%,创历史新高。


华盛顿和北京之间日益紧张的地缘政治局势令投资者感到恐慌,加剧了市场波动。美国驻华大使尼古拉斯伯恩斯周三表示,最近对贝恩、Capvision、Mintz Group 和美光科技 (MU)等美国咨询公司的打击令跨国企业感到担忧。


“Investor views about China remain pessimistic, partly because of skepticism about near-term growth momentum and partly because of worries about the longer-term outlook,” wrote Goldman Sachs analysts in a note on Tuesday.


China, home to more than 1.4 billion people, saw its population drop in 2022 for the first time in more than 60 years. A shrinking population means lower consumption. When Beijing made the announcement in January, global stocks were roiled. The Dow fell by 300 points and the Nasdaq Golden Dragon Index, which follows Chinese firms on American exchanges, fell by 4%.


What it means for markets: US-based companies doing business in China stand to lose if the economy continues on a downward trajectory. Companies like Apple (AAPL), Intel (INTC), Ford (F) and Tesla (TSLA) have large manufacturing ties to the country. Others, like Starbucks (SBUX) and Nike (NKE), rely on Chinese consumers.


Earlier this year, Bank of America (BAC) compiled a list of the S&P 500 companies with the highest exposure to China. Topping the list was Las Vegas Sands (LVS), down nearly 6% this month, with 68% of its sales coming from China.


Qualcomm (QCOM), with a 67% exposure rate to China, issued disappointing forward guidance during earnings last month, citing China’s slow recovery.


Tesla, Intel, Nvidia (NVDA), Wynn Resorts (WYNN) and MGM Resorts (MGM) were also among the 25 S&P 500 companies with the most exposure to China.


Companies that generate more than 50% of sales outside of the United States saw an earnings decline rate of -10.2% in the first quarter of 2023, according to FactSet data. Companies that generated more than 50% of sales inside the United States, however, saw an earnings growth rate of 2.7%.


Meanwhile, Chinese stocks trading in Hong Kong, just barely avoided entering bear territory this month: The Hang Seng index was down 19.6% on May 31 from its January high and the Golden Dragon China Index has fallen 5.6% so far this year.


JD.com (JD), one of the largest Chinese companies trading in the United States, has fallen by nearly 36% this year. Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs Group have both lowered their forecasts for Chinese equity indexes.


The bright side: There’s still potential for upside, say economists. Analysts at Nomura and Barclays forecast Chinese economic growth of almost 8% for the second quarter.


Ayaz Ebrahim, JPMorgan Chase’s emerging markets and Asia Pacific equities portfolio manager, recently said on Bloomberg TV that the bank is adding more shares of Chinese stocks to its portfolio in a bet that the Chinese government will back floundering companies and boost valuations.


Wildfires in Canada have smothered large swaths of the United States in a thick plume of toxic smoke, leading to air quality warnings and advisories to stay inside. But fine particles from the smoke can make their way indoors. Air purifiers can be helpful with filtering out the pollution.


Searches on Google have increased 16 fold since Monday, according to Google trends.


Whirlpool (WHR), one of the largest home goods manufacturers in the world, has seen its stock surge 13.2% over the past five days and by 6.4% on Wednesday alone. The company says that its HEPA purifiers can remove up to 99.97% of bad particles from air.


Shares of Carrier Global (CARR), which makes residential and industrial air purifiers and HVAC units, have gained nearly 11% over the past five days.


Johnson Controls (JCI), which has a number of air filters on the market, has also seen its stock price soar. Shares are up by 8.5% over a five-day period.


The air purifier market is poised to grow as climate change increases air pollution and exacerbates breathing difficulties. A Market Insights report forecasts that the industry is expected to grow at an annual compound rate of 10.8% to $2.9 billion by 2025, and $4.8 billion by 2030.


Outdoor air pollution could cause 6 to 9 million premature deaths a year globally by 2060 and cost $2.6 trillion annually because of sick days, increased medical bills and reduced productivity, according to an Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development report.


Sir Ivan Menezes, who served for a decade as chief executive of the largest spirits maker in the world, has died at age 63 after a short but aggressive illness.


Diageo confirmed Menezes’ death on Wednesday, just two days after the company announced that he was stepping down as CEO following complications from an emergency surgery on an ulcer.


Menezes was born in 1959 in Pune, India. He held UK and US citizenship, as well as overseas citizenship for India. He joined Diageo at its creation in 1997 and became CEO in July 2013. He was knighted in January by King Charles III for services to Business and to Equality. Prior to his illness, he was expected to retire at the end of June. COO Debra Crew, who was set to become CEO on July 1, will take on the role of interim chief executive, effective immediately.


Menezes, who ran the $93 billion company behind Johnnie Walker whiskey, Smirnoff vodka, Guinness and Tanqueray gin, was well known as a champion of diversity in the workplace.


About 40% of Diageo’s senior positions are held by women and 37% of its leaders are ethnically diverse.


“Ivan was undoubtedly one of the finest leaders of his generation,” said Diageo chairman Javier Ferrán in a statement on Wednesday. “Ivan was there at the creation of Diageo and over 25 years, shaped Diageo to become one of the best performing, most trusted and respected consumer companies.”


Under his leadership, Diageo’s market value nearly doubled from $52 billion to $93 billion. Menezes also successfully guided Diageo through the Covid-19 pandemic, delivering a net sales value 36% larger in 2023 than in 2019, Diageo said.


Menezes 还曾担任 Tapestry 的非执行董事、苏格兰威士忌协会理事会主席以及西北大学凯洛格管理学院全球顾问委员会成员。


今年第一季度

Source: https://www.cnn.com/2023/06/08/investing/premarket-stocks-trading/index.html

随着主流加密货币在美国证券交易委员会的监管打击下崩溃,以太坊第 2 层代币反弹


  • 以太坊 Layer 2 代币 Optimism、Arbitrum 和 ImmutableX 开始价格上涨以响应 SEC 的监管打击。

  • Optimism 今天早些时候完成了 Bedrock 硬分叉,将 Layer 2 解决方案的 gas 费用降低了 40%。

  • 自周二以来,OP、ARB 和 IMX 价格为持有人带来了 3% 至 6% 的收益。

以太坊努力消除美国证券交易委员会对该生态系统中两个最大的加密货币交易所 Binance 和 Coinbase 的执法行动造成的损失。山寨币的价格回升至关键的 1,800 美元上方;在撰写本文时,ETH 的交易价格为 1,877 美元。

虽然主流加密货币在美国金融监管机构采取行动后受到打击,但第 2 层代币、Optimism (OP)、Arbitrum (ARB) 和 Immutable X (IMX) 为持有者带来了收益。在 Binance 和 Coinbase 面临法律困境之后,Layer 2 代币的价格上涨可能是去中心化交易所受欢迎的溢出效应。

另请阅读:美国证券交易委员会在对 Binance 采取行动后的第二天起诉 Coinbase

以太坊第 2 层代币 OP、ARB 和 IMX 开始价格上涨

大市值加密货币在 SEC 行动的抛售压力下崩溃,而第 2 层扩展解决方案开始反弹。OP、ARB 和 IMX 价格分别上涨 5.5%、3.8% 和 2.0%。

以太坊第 2 层代币

以太坊第 2 层代币

有两个关键催化剂推动了 Layer 2 代币的价格。首先是去中心化交易所的日益普及。鉴于中心化交易所在美国证券交易委员会的监管压力下崩溃,DEX 自周一以来获得了普及和相关性。DEX 市场和去中心化平台上的交易可能会推动 OP、ARB 和 IMX 等代币的上涨。

第二个看涨催化剂是 OP 和 ARB 生态系统的技术更新。

乐观主义完成 Bedrock 硬分叉,Arbitrum 对预算提案进行公开投票

OP 主网迁移到基岩版,并于今天早些时候成功完成迁移。这次升级被称为基岩硬分叉,它将存款确认时间从 10 分钟缩短到 1 分钟,并将汽油费降低了 40%。

✅OP 主网向 Bedrock 的迁移已经完成,Bedrock 排序器已经启动。

关键的外部 OP 主网基础设施开始重新上线。您可以在此处跟踪基础架构状态: https: //t.co/XTtaArdI03

– 乐观 (✨_✨) (@optimismFND) 2023 年 6 月 6 日

硬分叉标志着 Optimism 的一个关键技术里程碑。

Arbitrum社区正准备在 6 月 9 日举行 Arbitrum 改进提案 (AIP) 投票。ARB 网络于 6 月 6 日发布了提案草案,它包含三个要素:锁定、预算和关于 7.5% 的透明度报告分配给基金会“行政预算钱包”的 ARB 代币。

在这里了解更多信息。

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如果没有在文章正文中明确提及,在撰写本文时,作者没有持有本文提及的任何股票,也与提及的任何公司没有业务关系。除 FXStreet 外,作者未因撰写本文而获得报酬。

FXStreet 和作者不提供个性化推荐。作者对该信息的准确性、完整性或适用性不作任何陈述。FXStreet 和作者将不对因该信息及其展示或使用而产生的任何错误、遗漏或任何损失、伤害或损害承担责任。错误和遗漏除外。

作者和 FXStreet 不是注册投资顾问,本文中的任何内容都不是投资建议。

Source: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/ethereum-layer-2-tokens-rally-as-mainstream-cryptocurrencies-crumble-under-secs-regulatory-crackdown-202306070750

加密货币面临新的压力

市场图片

由于风险资产失去吸引力,拖累纳斯达克指数走低,加密货币市值在过去 24 小时内下跌 1.8% 至 1.1 万亿美元。市场对澳大利亚和加拿大加息感到意外,增加了美联储下周采取类似举措的可能性。

比特币的交易价格接近 2.64 万美元,24 小时内下跌 1.5%,这一水平在过去三个月中起到了支撑作用。周三,价格在接近其 50 天移动平均线时出现反转。这是由纳斯达克 100 指数的抛售引发的,该指数当天下跌 1.75%。技术面仍然相当悲观,比特币仍处于两个月的下行通道内,即将跌至 25,000 美元以测试更重要的支撑。

有趣的是,以太坊感觉更有信心,并继续在跌破 1800 点时找到支撑,尽管 50 日均线仍是阻力位。

根据 CoinGecko 的数据,由于 SEC 对 Binance 和 Coinbase 提起诉讼,过去两天去中心化加密货币交易所(DEX) 的交易量中位数翻了两番多。Binance 流出近 8 亿美元,而 Coinbase 流出约 6 亿美元。

新闻背景

SEC 已发布监管命令,冻结 Binance.US 的账户。该网站的代表坚称所有用户资金都是安全的。

在美国证券交易委员会提起诉讼后,美国银行将 Coinbase 的股票评级下调至“表现不佳”,这可能威胁到该交易所的商业模式。

美国商品期货交易委员会 (CFTC) 前主席蒂莫西·马萨德 (Timothy Massad) 认为,加密行业的未来取决于美国证券交易委员会针对交易所Binance和 Coinbase 提起诉讼的结果。

福布斯金融科技 50 强榜单上的加密货币公司数量从去年的 9 家减少到 5 家。由于 FTX、Genesis、BlockFi、三箭资本和其他加密货币公司的倒闭,加密货币的市值在一年内缩水了 1.4 万亿美元。

负责任地交易。差价合约和点差交易是复杂的工具,并具有因杠杆作用而迅速亏损的高风险。77.37% 的散户投资者账户在与该提供商交易差价合约和点差交易时亏损。分析师的意见仅供参考,不应被视为推荐或交易建议。

SEC 已发布监管命令,冻结 Binance.US 的账户。该网站的代表坚称所有用户资金都是安全的。

Source: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/cryptocurrencies-under-renewed-pressure-202306080922

意见 | 让制造业再次伟大


当唐纳德特朗普开始他的政治崛起时,主流专家通常将他的支持归因于“经济焦虑”,表明 MAGA 是可以理解的,甚至可能是美国中心地带对去工业化和失业的合理反应。你不会再听到那么多了。


但特朗普本人确实对贸易逆差很着迷,而且如果他确实有任何非正统的政策想法——实际上,他主要是一个标准的、削减税收和福利的共和党人——他们专注于重振制造业的尝试。这至少是他在 2018 年对中国发起贸易战的主要原因。


事实证明,特朗普在促进制造业方面没有取得明显的成功。但在他的继任者的领导下发生了一件有趣的事情:突然间,对制造业的投资激增。特朗普的贸易政策没有实现的,拜登总统的产业政策实现了。


数字是惊人的。这是制造业建筑支出的注释图表:


特朗普 2017 年的减税政策被宣传为促进美国投资的一种方式,但没有任何明显效果。2018 年年中正式拉开序幕的贸易战也同样如此。但在拜登的领导下,正如一些人所说,制造业建设呈抛物线状,仅在过去一年就翻了一番多。


原始美元数据可能会产生误导,尤其是从长远来看;支出需要与整个经济规模进行比较。但是提供这些数字的人口普查局的年度数据可以追溯到 1993 年;这是过去三十年制造业建设占 GDP 的百分比(2023 年的数字是 4 月份支出占第一季度 GDP 的百分比):


图像

信用…人口普查,经济分析局

它仍然令人印象深刻。关于激增的原因没有真正的问题。它受到两项主要立法的推动:误导性的通货膨胀减少法案,其实际核心是对绿色能源的补贴,以及 CHIPS 法案(“创造有益的激励措施来生产半导体” – 简称警察!),这是应该通过促进国内生产,嗯,芯片来保护国家安全。


The ultimate impact of these policies will almost surely be much bigger than these numbers suggest. For one thing, planning and beginning work on new manufacturing plants takes time, so there’s probably even more spending in the pipeline. For another, these numbers count only construction — basically, factory buildings. Filling those buildings with machinery and investing in R&D to make the most of the new capacity will probably add hundreds of billions to the total business spending.


Why are Biden policies producing a manufacturing revival but Trump policies didn’t? Well, Trump’s trade policy was simply incompetent: Because it raised tariffs on industrial inputs as well as consumer goods, it raised costs and may well have reduced manufacturing employment. And the Trump tax cut was based on the belief that if you let corporations keep more of their profits, they’ll invest the money rather than use it to, say, buy back shares; this belief was proved wrong.


Biden’s industrial policies, by contrast, are largely focused on creating demand for U.S.-manufactured products, for example by subsidizing the purchase of electric vehicles. And business investment, while far less sensitive to tax rates than legend has it, is very responsive to demand.


And so we’re having a huge manufacturing revival.


Now, there’s a risk that what I’m saying may come across as too uncritically upbeat. So let me offer two major caveats about the Biden manufacturing boom.


First, even if we do have a major manufacturing revival, we’re not going back to 1970, when more than a quarter of U.S. workers were in manufacturing. We’re still going to be overwhelmingly a service economy despite these new policies. The new manufacturing boom may help lagging regions in the U.S. heartland and is specifically designed to help workers without college degrees. But nobody should expect it to turn back the clock on our transition to a postindustrial society.


Second, rapid growth in a sector isn’t necessarily a good thing for the economy. Until recently, for example, there was an explosion of resources devoted to Bitcoin mining. As far as I can tell, these resources produced nothing of value — sorry, crypto enthusiasts, Bitcoin has yet to show that it’s useful for anything besides money laundering. And the Bitcoin boom has both inflicted environmental damage and consumed resources that could have been used to produce things that are actually useful.


So why should we consider Biden’s industrial-policy-driven manufacturing boom a good thing? Mainly because it’s part of an urgently needed transition to renewable energy that may be our last chance to avoid climate catastrophe. And the surge in U.S. manufacturing investment in particular partly reflects protectionist aspects of the legislation that are a bad thing in terms of economic efficiency — but were essential to the political deal-making that made it possible to tackle climate change at all.


那么,关键是拜登制造业政策的成功不能仅仅通过极其可观的投资数字来判断。尽管如此,如果该政策没有带来制造业的繁荣,显然会被认为是失败的。因此,繁荣正在发生是个好消息,甚至超出了最乐观的预期。

快速点击

产业政策的回归。


新重商主义


绿色贸易紧张


关于特朗普的贸易战

面对音乐

来源照片由 Jim Watson 和 Ryan McVay/Getty Images 提供


保罗·克鲁格曼自 2000 年以来一直担任观点专栏作家,同时也是纽约城市大学研究生中心的杰出教授。他因在国际贸易和经济地理学方面的工作而获得 2008 年诺贝尔经济学奖。 @保罗克鲁格曼


Source: https://www.nytimes.com/2023/06/06/opinion/biden-trump-ira-chips-manufacturing.html

加密货币价格预测:Solana、LUNA 和 XRP – 欧洲总结 6 月 5 日

为什么 Solana 价格有望上涨 30%

Solana 价格在日线图上显示出相当多的发展,所有这些都表明 SOL 持有者的未来看涨。投资者可以期待快速上涨,如果这些乐观条件仍然看涨,这可能会发展成中期上升趋势。

图表

随着黑山法院批准 Do Kwon 的第二次保释请求,Terra LUNA Classic 价格上涨

Terra LUNA Classic (LUNC) 价格在一夜之间为持有者带来了两位数的收益。LUNC 价格上涨,以响应 Do Kwon 保释请求的近期发展。权案的下一次听证会是 6 月 16 日。

Pro-XRP 律师表示,Ripple 有 25% 的机会胜诉 SEC,法官可能会在 9 月前宣布判决

Ripple has a 25% chance of winning its legal battle against the US Securities & Exchange Commission (SEC), according to pro-XRP attorney John Deaton. Over the weekend, Deaton shared his opinion on Ripple’s likelihood of both an outright win and a partial victory.

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Pro-XRP 律师表示,Ripple 有 25% 的机会胜诉 SEC,法官可能会在 9 月前宣布判决

Source: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/cryptocurrencies-price-prediction-solana-luna-xrp-european-wrap-5-june-202306051327

Stanley Druckenmiller 表示,在人工智能看涨的情况下,Nvidia 股票在未来几年值得持有






  • Stanley Druckenmiller 在彭博会议上表示,Nvidia 值得持有两到三年。

  • 他的乐观情绪出现之际,其他投资者称 Nvidia 估值过高。

  • 德鲁肯米勒此前透露了对英伟达和微软的投资。

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亿万富翁投资者 Stanley Druckenmiller 计划至少在不久的将来持有Nvidia 股票,因为这家芯片制造商面临人工智能趋势可能“像互联网一样具有变革性”。

His bullishness comes as other investors have called Nvidia overvalued after it briefly soared to a market cap of $1 trillion last month.

Speaking at the Bloomberg Invest conference on Wednesday, the Duquesne Family Office founder said that he’d hold the firm’s stock for the next few years.

“If [AI is] as big as I think it is, Nvidia is something we’re going to want to own for at least two or three years, not for 10 months,” he said, adding “And maybe longer.”

Nvidia has emerged as a critical enabler of the AI boom. Bank of America has called it the “picks and shovels leader in the AI gold rush” as the company virtually controls the market for graphics-processing chips that power generative AI chatbots like ChatGPT and Bard.

While Nvidia’s valuation is just below $1 trillion, shares have still soared more than 160% in the year to date.

During the Bloomberg interview, Druckenmiller also noted that even if a hard landing for the economy affects some AI development, he expects Nvidia to thrive in the long run.

“History has proven that if you have very good earnings in a recession, and they’re sustainable — if they’re not, the market somehow figures it out — those stocks will do just fine,” he said.

The investor has already placed a bet on Nvidia. In the first quarter, his family office snapped up $220 million worth of the chipmaker’s stock. That’s alongside $210 million in shares of Microsoft, which is an investor in ChatGPT parent OpenAI and has incorporated the technology into its Bing web browser.

But not everyone is convinced about Nvidia. ARK Invest CEO Cathie Wood and finance professor Asmath Damodaran have said shares are overvalued.

Still, AI adoption throughout the economy may propel the S&P 500 by up to 14%, Goldman Sachs wrote in a Monday forecast.

亿万富翁投资者 Stanley Druckenmiller 计划至少在不久的将来持有Nvidia 股票,因为这家芯片制造商面临人工智能趋势可能“像互联网一样具有变革性”。

Source: https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/nvidia-stock-nvda-stanley-druckenmiller-artificial-intelligence-ai-bull-market-2023-6?op=1

今天的股票期权行情和波动

期权市场概览页面提供了今天的市场活动和影响期权市场的近期新闻的快照。

选项信息至少延迟 15 分钟,并且全天至少每 15 分钟更新一次。新一天的期权数据将在美国东部时间上午 8 点 55 分左右开始填充页面。

不寻常的期权活动

异常期权活动识别交易量高于合约未平仓量的期权合约。不寻常的期权可以证明对“聪明钱”对大批量订单的看法的洞察力,表明新头寸以及标的股票或 ETF 可能出现重大变动。当以要价购买看涨期权时,期权可以被视为看涨,而当以买价卖出看涨期权时,期权可以被视为看跌。

期权新闻

从行业专家那里获得关于期权市场的评论。

最活跃的选项

显示当天期权活动最多的代码,以及 IV 等级和看跌/看涨比率。

承保电话

备兑看涨期权或买入卖出策略用于通过卖出您拥有的标的证券的看涨期权来增加多头头寸的回报。利润仅限于空头看涨期权的行使价减去标的证券的购买价,再加上收到的权利金。损失仅限于标的证券的购买价格减去收到的溢价。如果您预计基础证券的价格不会有太大变动,则备兑看涨期权策略可用于产生额外收入。

最高隐含波动率

强调 IV 罢工可能包括看涨期权、现金担保看跌期权或利差候选人,以利用膨胀的期权费。

隐含波动率是衡量标的股票在期权期限内的预期波动率的理论值。在了解期权定价时,这是一个需要考虑的重要因素,因为它可以帮助交易者确定期权的价值是公允、低估还是高估。一般来说,交易者会在隐含波动率低时买入期权,而在隐含波动率高时卖出期权(或考虑价差策略)。

期权看跌/看涨比率

使用看跌/看涨比率来确定市场顶部和底部的时间。

“正常”活动通常是 3 个看涨期权对 2 个看跌期权,或者比率为 0.60。

较低的数字(小于 0.7)被认为是看涨的(更多的看涨期权正在交易),而较高的数字(大于 1.3)被认为是看跌的(更多的看跌期权正在交易。)

指数期权

显示当天期权活动最多的指数,以及 IV 排名和看跌/看涨比率。

从行业专家那里获得关于期权市场的评论。

Source: https://www.barchart.com/options

房地产亿万富翁杰夫格林警告美国经济正走向麻烦 – 房价可能暴跌






  • 亿万富翁投资者杰夫格林预计房价将出现痛苦的低迷和潜在的暴跌。

  • 这位房地产大亨表示,美联储加息将对多个行业造成沉重打击。

  • Greene 预计经济衰退、人工智能和远程工作会给商业地产带来压力。

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杰夫格林警告说,为美国经济下滑和房价下滑做好准备。

The real-estate billionaire, who made a fortune betting against the mid-2000s housing bubble, spoke to Insider about his current outlook on Tuesday. He predicted painful fallout from governments and central banks spending trillions of dollars during and after the pandemic to prop up their economies.

“We’ve just taken the rollercoaster so high,” Greene said, comparing the fiscal and monetary binge to climbing to the top of Space Mountain at Walt Disney World.

Greene blasted the Federal Reserve for pumping money into the economy at times when shortages of workers and raw materials were pushing prices higher. He also slammed the US central bank for hiking interest rates from virtually zero to upwards of 5% since last spring in response to historic inflation.

“You’re firing a gun at the same dead body over and over again,” he said. “You’ve already killed the guy. I think that’s what they’re doing to the economy; it’s just gonna cause catastrophes in a lot of industries.”

Greene noted the unprecedented amounts of monetary and fiscal stimulus have forestalled a recession. However, he cautioned that everything from Wall Street deal flows to construction projects will dry up as liquidity is drained from the system.

He noted that rate hikes tend to hammer certain parts of the economy, but have little effect on sectors such as healthcare, education, and government.

“It’s really hitting some areas hard,” he said, pointing to commercial real estate and investment banks as examples. “They’re gonna get slammed, but a lot of people aren’t going to be affected at all.”

The real-estate tycoon — who met with John Paulson during the mid-2000s housing bubble, and made a fortune emulating the hedge fund manager’s iconic bet against subprime mortgages — flagged the likely impact of higher borrowing costs on house prices.

“People can’t qualify for mortgages anymore,” he said, noting the housing market has shifted from a state of frantic buying and bidding wars to paralysis due to rates rising. Sellers are mulling price cuts after receiving zero offers, while buyers are balking at paying much higher mortgage rates, he added.

Many people will eventually have to sell their homes for less than they’d like, for reasons like divorce or the loss of a family member. Unless rates decline soon, that’s likely to pull down house prices, Greene said.

The property developer, who has campaigned to become a Florida senator and the state’s governor in recent years, cautioned the challenges may only be starting.

“At some point it’s just going to be harder and harder to make money,” Greene said. He noted that many workers pushed for raises during the pandemic, but if the economy slows down, employers might seek to lay them off to slash their bloated overheads. Similarly, if landlords see vacancies rising and rents falling in their properties, they might have to cut costs as well, he said.

Greene predicted that artificial intelligence will “start to rear its ugly head” and “hit the white-collar workforce like a sledgehammer,” wiping out loads of jobs when the economy is already cooling.

Moreover, he pointed to the rise in remote working as a headwind for office buildings and other commercial real estate in towns and cities. “They’re not gonna need more office space, that’s for sure,” he said about companies.

格林还谈到了今年股市令人窒息的反弹,投资者押注人工智能的繁荣将增加特斯拉、英伟达和其他公司的利润,推动了股市的上涨。

他强调像 Meta 和谷歌这样的公司对人们的业务至关重要,并建议将 AI 集成到他们的软件工具中将使他们更有价值。然而,他警告说,更广泛的经济放缓可能会对容易受到经济衰退影响的公司股票造成压力。

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Source: https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/jeff-greene-house-prices-housing-market-real-estate-fed-economy-2023-6?op=1

PayPal 股票值得买入吗?

PayPal ( PYPL 0.79%) 的股票已经失去了投资者的青睐,从撰写本文时的历史高点下跌了 79%。在冠状病毒大流行最严重的日子里,业务蓬勃发展,但随着消费者行为正常化和经济重新开放,PayPal 的增长急剧放缓。

投资者是时候抛售股票了吗?还是这家顶级金融科技公司值得在您的投资组合中占有一席之地?让我们仔细看看。

出售贝宝的原因

非常清楚的是,我们在 2020 年和 2021 年看到的 PayPal 的巨大增长可能永远不会再次实现。该业务在 2022 年增加了 8.5% 的收入,同时仅增加了 860 万净新活跃账户,与前两年相去甚远。今年前三个月,PayPal 的用户群较去年 12 月略有萎缩。这是否意味着该平台已发挥其全部潜力?

可能是这样。当每个人都被困在家里时,网上购物蓬勃发展,但现在一切都恢复正常了。包括 Etsy 甚至亚马逊在内的顶级电子商务公司都报告了最近几个季度的销售放缓,这表明消费者可能会再次青睐线下零售。由于 PayPal 是北美和欧洲最广泛接受的数字钱包,这种趋势损害了业务。

此外,通胀压力对 PayPal 来说是一个严重的阻力。消费者正在扩大预算并为必需品支付更多费用,这导致可自由支配的消费能力下降。

尽管支付行业产生了一些世界上最好的企业——想想 Visa 和万事达卡——像 PayPal 这样的公司的竞争非常激烈。谈到在线结账这一 PayPal 的核心功能时,Apple Pay 开始取得进展。在关键的假日购物季,它的使用率飙升。当涉及到面对面交易时,这也是一个威胁。

Venmo 是 PayPal 拥有的广受欢迎的点对点服务,每月有 6000 万活跃用户,该公司必须与由大型银行机构财团运营的 Zelle 以及 Block 的 Cash App 竞争。

购买贝宝的理由

由于该股在过去几年遭受重创,目前的市盈率(P/E) 为 27 倍。这远低于 55 的过去五年平均市盈率。这告诉我,投资者已经从对这项业务的极度乐观转变为悲观的基调。华尔街共识分析师预测 2022 年至 2027 年的年化净收入增长 28%,获得良好回报的潜力就在眼前,尤其是要牢记估值。

该企业在从其用户群中获得更多参与方面做得很好。在最近一个季度,每个活跃账户的交易量增长了 13%。这仍然是首席执行官丹舒尔曼的关键战略重点。

PayPal 的双向平台由 3500 万商家和 3.98 亿个人组成,使公司受益于网络效应,这可能是目前最强大的经济护城河。这只是意味着随着 PayPal 带来更多商家,消费者会发现使用该服务的价值更大。相反,更多的人增加了对商家的有用性,也是如此。它赋予了 PayPal 强大的竞争地位,规模较小的竞争对手几乎无法赶上。

网络效应也有助于解释为什么这项业务如此有利可图。2022 年,PayPal 的收入为 275 亿美元,产生了 51 亿美元的自由现金流,利润率高达 19%。资产负债表处于原始状态,净现金头寸为 44 亿美元。随着领导团队找到全面削减大量成本的方法,公司未来将变得更加高效。

尽管 PayPal 的增长已大幅放缓,而且面临激烈的竞争,但我认为,为这家仍具有竞争优势的企业提供的具有吸引力的估值,使该股票今天值得买入。

亚马逊子公司 Whole Foods Market 的前首席执行官约翰·麦基 (John Mackey) 是 The Motley Fool 的董事会成员。Neil Patel在 Amazon.com 和 Block 任职。The Motley Fool 在 Amazon.com、Apple、Block、Etsy、Mastercard、PayPal 和 Visa 拥有职位并推荐。Motley Fool 推荐以下选项:Mastercard 2025 年 1 月 370 美元多头看涨期权,Mastercard 2025 年 1 月 380 美元看涨期权空头,PayPal 2023 年 6 月 67.50 美元看跌期权空头。Motley Fool 有披露政策

Source: https://www.fool.com/investing/2023/06/07/is-paypal-stock-a-buy/