Category: Trading news

Rivian Stock Is Trading Terribly. Calls Grow for an Activist.

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March 22, 2023 10:37 am ET

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Rivian Automotive stock has been trading far worse than most of its peers. Sales and products aren’t the problem. It’s spending. The company needs a plan to control cash and improve investor sentiment. Wall Street has some advice.

Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas pointed out in a report Wednesday that recent Rivian (ticker: RIVN) stock levels were trading below their cash value. Rivian ended the year with about $13 in cash a share and added another $1.40 in cash a share by selling bonds.

Source: https://www.barrons.com/articles/rivian-stock-trading-activist-1086a9ee

Yahoo fait partie de la famille de marques Yahoo.

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Source: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/1-mexico-says-abide-trade-141621122.html

A recession is guaranteed this year based on Jerome Powell’s favorite bond-market gauge

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  • Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s preferred bond-market indicator says a recession is on the way this year.
  • It’s the spread between the yield on three-month Treasury bills and their expected yield in 18 months.
  • Powell has touted the predictive power of the gauge in previous statements.

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Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s preferred bond-market metric is signaling that a recession is certain this year and that rate cuts are also coming.

The spread between the current yield on three-month Treasury bills and their expected yield in 18 months is now inverted by a record 134 basis points.

That’s more than the previous record set in January 2001, about two months before a recession began in the US, according to Bloomberg.

Here’s how Powell described the bond-market indicator in March 2022:

“Frankly, there’s good research by staff in the Federal Reserve system that really says to look at the short — the first 18 months — of the yield curve. That’s really what has 100% of the explanatory power of the yield curve. It makes sense. Because if it’s inverted, that means the Fed’s going to cut, which means the economy is weak.”

An inverted yield curve suggests investors aren’t confident about future returns, and it’s a classic warning for a economic downturn.

Additionally, to Powell’s point, the bond market is saying that the central bank will reduce interest rates in the coming 18 months, given that the near-term yields are higher than where investors expect them to be later on.

On Wednesday, the Fed made a quarter-point interest rate hike, and markets began pricing in higher odds that the central bank would cut rates as soon as July, Bloomberg data shows.

The Fed’s messaging, however, contrasted with market expectations, as Powell said interest rates will still remain elevated through the year. But he also noted the recent bank turmoil with Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank, PacWest, and others could help the Fed achieve its goals by tightening credit conditions overall.

“If the US economy continues to rumble along as it has the last few quarters, interest rates will remain high,” DataTrek Research’s cofounder, Nicholas Colas, wrote in a note Thursday. “If the current mini-crisis in the banking system begins to crimp growth, the Fed will still want to see proof that this phenomenon is indeed working like a Fed rate hike to reduce inflation.”

Meanwhile, after the Fed’s latest rate hike, Bill Ackman warned that the US economy is heading for a “train wreck”, whereas former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers said, despite the banking tumult, more rate hikes may ultimately be necessary.

Source: https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/jerome-powell-recession-indicator-economy-markets-fed-interest-rates-bank-2023-3?op=1

Trading the news

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Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to trade foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

Opinions expressed at FXStreet are those of the individual authors and do not necessarily represent the opinion of FXStreet or its management. FXStreet has not verified the accuracy or basis-in-fact of any claim or statement made by any independent author: errors and omissions may occur. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website, by FXStreet, its employees, clients or contributors, is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. FXStreet will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.

Source: https://www.fxstreet.com/live-video/trading-the-news-202303220833

Colts Inquired About Trading Up to No. 1 Overall in Draft: Report

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Chris Ballard

Getty A senior NFL reporter revealed the Colts and general manager Chris Ballard reached out to Chicago about the No. 1 pick in the draft.

The Indianapolis Colts, who hold the No. 4 pick in the upcoming draft, were one of the potential suitors to trade up and acquire the No. 1 overall pick from the Chicago Bears. But the Carolina Panthers swooped in from No. 9 to trade up for the top selection on March 10 instead.

Sports Illustrated’s Albert Breer detailed exactly how close the Colts were to trading up to No. 1 in a March 20 story.

“The market early was limited,” Breer wrote.

The Colts inquired about the No. 1 pick and spoke to the Bears about a potential deal. But ultimately, the Colts weren’t ready to settle on a surefire rookie quarterback, according to Breer.

“Indianapolis wanted to go through the full process with the quarterbacks and wasn’t convinced enough to move,” Breer said.

Colts general manager Chris Ballard has called the shots on draft-day trades since his hire in 2017. Breer noted that Ballard and Bears GM Ryan Poles have a previous professional connection, but it wasn’t enough to make a deal.

“Poles and Indy GM Chris Ballard worked together in Kansas City and remain close,” Breer wrote.

Breer also acknowledged that the Las Vegas Raiders inquired about trading up from No. 7 to No. 1, but they and the Bears could not see eye-to-eye on a potential trade package.

Indianapolis, needing a quarterback of the future, is now deliberating what to do with the No. 4 pick.

Indy’s Options At 4th Overall

Four projected first-round quarterbacks mean signal callers will be in demand early and often in the draft. Some believe the Colts could risk selecting a third or fourth-choice QB if they do not trade up.

Carolina owning No. 1 means it’s even difficult to trade up to that spot now. The same goes for the No. 2 pick, which is currently owned by a Colts’ divisional foe in the Houston Texans.

The Colts could trade up from No. 4 to No. 3 (owned by Arizona), but it might be complicated to design a trade package for such a move.

With that in mind, the Colts might find it best to hold steady at No. 4. But the team has also been linked to trading two first-rounders for Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson, who would be an exception to the Colts ending its streak of starting veteran QBs.

Besides Jackson, it would be hard to imagine the Colts trading for or signing a free-agent veteran QB.

Indianapolis addressed a vacancy by adding quarterback Gardner Minshew in mid-March, but it would be hard to imagine the Colts using Minshew as a starter or in a bridge role.

The Colts’ Updated Cap Situation

As of March 19, the Colts have the fifth-highest available cap space in the NFL. Indy trails the Bears, Falcons, Packers and Cardinals, according to Jason Fitzgerald of Over the Cap.

The Colts, who cleared cap space on March 14 by trading star cornerback Stephon Gilmore, also gave $1 million in bonuses to defensive tackle DeForest Buckner and center Ryan Kelly just days later. Cornerback Kenny Moore II received $500,000 in bonuses.

The team currently has $20.3 million to spend in available cap space. That number could get even larger with a pre-draft trade, or the Colts could elect to use it on more big-name free agents.

Indianapolis was also recently linked to potentially dealing Kelly.

Colts general manager Chris Ballard has called the shots on draft-day trades since his hire in 2017. Breer noted that Ballard and Bears GM Ryan Poles have a previous professional connection, but it wasn’t enough to make a deal.

Source: https://heavy.com/sports/indianapolis-colts/colts-inquired-about-trading-up-1-overall/

5 things to know before the stock market opens Tuesday

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News Update – Market Close

Here are the most important news items that investors need to start their trading day:

1. Relief rally

UBS’ “shotgun wedding” with Credit Suisse might have done the trick, at least for now, as U.S. equities markets rallied Monday following the latest moves to shore up the global banking system. Now, Wall Street’s focus is almost entirely on what’ll come of the Federal Reserve’s policy-setting meeting, which kicks off Tuesday and concludes Wednesday. The money is still on a quarter-point rate hike, even though many are arguing for a pause on increases, given the recent banking sector tumult. At this point, though, markets are more likely to react to what the Fed and its chairman, Jerome Powell, say about what’s next in the central bank’s battle with inflation. Follow live markets updates.

2. First Republic’s last resort?

There's not a lot of interest to take even a piece of First Republic, says Financial Times' Gandel

Yes, but what about First Republic? The regional bank – which, like Silicon Valley Bank, caters to clients with big, uninsured deposits – is teetering. Shares of First Republic are down about 90% this month after another brutal session Monday, even after 11 banks announced last week they were depositing a total of $30 billion with the bank. Now, JPMorgan Chase, which led that effort, is advising First Republic on strategic alternatives, including a capital raise, which would dilute shareholders, or even a sale, according to CNBC’s David Faber.

3. Pressure on Jassy

Amazon CEO Andy Jassy

F. Carter Smith | Bloomberg | Getty Images

Amazon will lay off another 9,000 employees over the coming weeks, the company said. These cuts come on top of the 18,000 layoffs the e-commerce and cloud computing giant executed between November and January, and some market observers think there could be more to come. The decision is the latest difficult moment for CEO Andy Jassy, who took over from founder Jeff Bezos nearly two years ago. Over that time, Amazon’s shares have fallen 44%, as the company’s big gains during the lockdown era of the pandemic were wiped away while life started to return to normal. So while he’s now slashing costs, Jassy will face intense pressure to reignite growth, writes CNBC’s Annie Palmer.

4. Virgin Orbit’s existential crisis

The company’s modified 747 jet “Cosmic Girl” in Mojave, California.

Virgin Orbit

Virgin Orbit seemed to have everything going for it. Name recognition. Wealthy backers. The excitement over a new space race fueled by private investment. Now it’s on the verge of bankruptcy. A filing could come as soon as this week as the company struggles to find a buyer, according to CNBC space reporter Michael Sheetz. And many of the company’s employees, from executives to engineers, are actively looking for new jobs. Virgin Orbit, which was spun out of Virgin Galactic, counts charismatic billionaire Richard Branson as its largest shareholder. After going public in December 2021 during the final stretch of the SPAC wave, its shares are now trading at around 50 cents a pop.

5. Xi and Putin strengthen their bond

In this grab taken from video, China’s President Xi Jinping, left, speaks with Russian President Vladimir Putin during their meeting in Moscow, Russia, Monday, March 20, 2023.

Russian Presidential Press Office | AP

Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin will hold a second day of meetings Tuesday in Moscow. The two leaders are working to increase ties between their two countries in the face of economic, diplomatic and military opposition from the west, led by the United States. Xi invited Putin to visit China some time this year, while the two are expected to sign a series of pacts and discuss cooperation over Russia’s war in Ukraine. Follow live war updates.

– CNBC’s Yun Li, Jesse Pound, David Faber, Annie Palmer, Michael Sheetz and Holly Ellyatt contributed to this report.

— Follow broader market action like a pro on CNBC Pro.

UBS’ “shotgun wedding” with Credit Suisse might have done the trick, at least for now, as U.S. equities markets rallied Monday following the latest moves to shore up the global banking system. Now, Wall Street’s focus is almost entirely on what’ll come of the Federal Reserve’s policy-setting meeting, which kicks off Tuesday and concludes Wednesday. The money is still on a quarter-point rate hike, even though many are arguing for a pause on increases, given the recent banking sector tumult. At this point, though, markets are more likely to react to what the Fed and its chairman, Jerome Powell, say about what’s next in the central bank’s battle with inflation. Follow live markets updates.

Source: https://www.cnbc.com/2023/03/21/5-things-to-know-before-the-stock-market-opens-tuesday-march-21.html

Bank turmoil could bring ‘vicious’ end to bear market, Morgan Stanley says

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Turmoil within the banking sector is likely to bring a “vicious” start to the end of the bear market in U.S. stocks, according to Morgan Stanley.

Michael Wilson, the chief U.S. equity strategist at Morgan Stanley and a longtime Wall Street bear, said in an analyst note on Monday that the stock market is in the early and painful stages of exiting the bear market than began in the summer.

“The last part of the bear can be vicious and highly correlated,” he said. “Prices fall sharply via an equity risk premium spike that is very hard to prevent or defend in one’s portfolio.”

He suggested that stocks are still not worth the risk, particularly when investors can turn to safer assets like Treasurys and other bonds. Until the equity risk premium – which measures the expected return on stocks above the risk-free rate – climbs as high as 250 basis points, the S&P 500 will remain unattractive. The ERP is currently at 230 basis points.

BANKS BORROW RECORD-BREAKING $160B FROM FED CRISIS LENDING PROGRAMS

US stock market

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) on March 16, 2023 in New York City. ((Photo by Spencer Platt/Getty Images) / Getty Images)

“We have been waiting patiently for this acknowledgment because with it comes the real buying opportunity,” Wilson said. “Given the risk to the earnings outlook, risk/reward in U.S. equities remains unattractive until the ERP is at least 350-400bp, in our view.”

Stocks closed down on Friday, with big declines at mid-sized, regional banks despite an unprecedented effort to rescue First Republic Bank. Despite the losses, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite notched increases for the week.

Wilson believes those gains stemmed from Wall Street’s misplaced optimism that the Federal Reserve was rekindling a policy initiative similar to quantitative easing.

“We think it had to do with the view we have heard from some clients that the Fed/FDIC bailout of depositors is a form of quantitative easing (QE) and provides the catalyst for stocks to go higher,” he wrote.

ONE YEAR INTO ITS INFLATION FIGHT, THE FED FACES MURKY FUTURE

Silicon Valley Bank

People queue up outside the headquarters of Silicon Valley Bank to withdraw their funds on March 13, 2023, in Santa Clara, California. (Liu Guanguan/China News Service/VCG via Getty Images / Getty Images)

He continued: “While the massive increase in Fed balance sheet reserves last week does reliquefy the banking system, it does little in terms of creating new money that can flow into the economy or the markets, at least beyond a brief period of, say, a few days or weeks,” Wilson added.

One week ago, the Treasury Department, Federal Reserve and the FDIC announced that the federal government would protect all deposits at the failed Silicon Valley Bank, even those holding funds that exceeded the FDIC’s $250,000 insurance limit.

Unlike typical quantitative easing, though, the Fed is lending, not buying.

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“If a bank borrows from the Fed, it is expanding its own balance sheet, making leverage ratios more binding,” he said. “When the Fed buys the security, the seller of that security has balance sheet space made available for renewed expansion. That is not the case in this situation.”

Source: https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/bank-turmoil-could-bring-vicious-end-bear-market-morgan-stanley-says

US stocks trade mixed as investors assess banking turmoil after UBS takeover of Credit Suisse

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  • US stocks were mixed as traders assess the impact of UBS’ takeover of Credit Suisse.
  • First Republic Bank fell 16% as S&P Global cut its credit rating yet again.
  • Morgan Stanley’s Mike Wilson said bank turmoil marks the start of a “vicious” end to the bear market.

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US stocks were mostly higher on Monday following a takeover deal of Credit Suisse by UBS over the weekend in an effort to calm concerns of a global banking crisis.

On Sunday, UBS bought its smaller rival for $3.25 billion at the urging of regulators eager to shore up confidence in the country’s banking system.

“With the takeover of Credit Suisse by UBS, a solution has been found to secure financial stability and protect the Swiss economy in this exceptional situation,” the Swiss National Bank said in a statement published Sunday afternoon.

UBS stock was up 8% in the US, while Credit Suisse’s US-listed shares dropped by 50% in morning trades.

In the US, shares of regional banks parred some losses as traders assessed contagion concerns after the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank earlier this month. First Republic Bank plunged 16% after the opening bell as S&P Global cut its credit rating yet again.

Mike Wilson, a top strategist at Morgan Stanley, said the failure in the banking sector markets the start of a “vicious” end to the bear market for stocks.

“This is exactly how bear markets end — an unforeseen catalyst that is obvious in hindsight forces market participants to acknowledge what has been right in front of them the entire time,” Wilson wrote in a note to clients.

Here’s where US indexes stood shortly after 9:30 a.m. on Monday:

Here’s what else is happening today:

In commodities, bonds and crypto:

  • West Texas Intermediate crude oil fell 0.12% to $66.66 per barrel. Brent crude, oil’s international benchmark, dropped 0.3% to $72.80.
  • Gold rose 0.6% to $1,985.60 per ounce.
  • The yield on the 10-year Treasury ticked up three basis points to 3.43%.
  • Bitcoin rose 3.16% to $26,651, while ether jumped 1.86% to $1,744.

Source: https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-news-today-banking-crisis-ubs-credit-suisse-2023-3?op=1

Jets Rumors: Ben Jones Linked After Titans Release amid Aaron Rodgers Trade Buzz

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Tennessee Titans center Ben Jones (60) blocks during their game against the Denver Broncos, Sunday, Nov. 13, 2022, in Nashville, Tenn. (AP Photo/Wade Payne)

AP Photo/Wade Payne

As the New York Jets await the impending trade for star quarterback Aaron Rodgers, they reportedly are also looking to address other needs remaining on the roster.

According to Brian Costello of the New York Post, the Jets are eyeing free-agent center Ben Jones, who has familiarity with New York’s new offensive line coach, Keith Carter, from their five years together with the Tennessee Titans.

Jones was released by Tennessee earlier this month with a failed physical designation. The move saved the Titans $3.7 million in cap space, though they incurred a dead-money hit of $4.6 million.

“He embodied a lot of the qualities we talk about when we describe a Titans player,” Titans head coach Mike Vrabel said of Jones at the time of his release. “He was a great teammate; his toughness was off the charts, and he had a leadership quality that was earned through the relationships he built and the dedication to the game he showed to his teammates.”

After spending the first four years of his NFL career with the Houston Texans, Jones signed with the Titans as a free agent in 2016. He quickly emerged as a leader on the offense, becoming a two-time team captain and starting 108 of 114 games over his seven years with the team. He anchored an offensive line that paved the way for one of the top rushing attacks in the league, and he was selected to his first Pro Bowl last season as an alternate.

The Jets are in need of a new center after veteran Connor McGovern became an unrestricted free agent this offseason. He had been the team’s starting center since the 2020 season.

New York is surely hoping to have the right protection in place when Rodgers arrives. The team allowed 42 sacks last year after dealing with injuries to multiple key players like Alijah Vera-Tucker, George Fant, Duane Brown and Mekhi Becton.

The Jets will need to be better for Rodgers, who will turn 40 later this year. Adding Jones would be a step in the right direction.

Source: https://bleacherreport.com/articles/10069402-jets-rumors-ben-jones-linked-after-titans-release-amid-aaron-rodgers-trade-buzz

Yahoo fait partie de la famille de marques Yahoo.

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