Marketmind: Not Nice Out There

A look at the day ahead from Sujata Rao.

Inflation? Reflation? Stagflation? Whichever ultimately turns out to be correct, markets are running scared, with world stocks at the lowest since July and some 6% off the record highs hit a month ago.

Brent crude has hit new three-year highs above $80 a barrel after OPEC+ producers stuck to their output policy despite pressure to pump more oil. Record high gas prices and below-average European inventories portend a winter of higher heating and power bills for consumers and small businesses alike.

China’s property sector problems and a power crunch that’s idling factories meanwhile pose a threat to economic growth; developer Fantasia has joined Evergrande in missing a coupon payment and borrowing costs for “junk”-rated Chinese firms have soared.

Now add in the risk of a default in the world’s biggest economy. This according to Moody’s could cause U.S. economic activity to shrink nearly 4%, eliminate at a stroke 6 million jobs and lift unemployment towards 9%.

All that is keeping U.S. 10-year bond yields well below three-month highs touched last week while sending up shortest-dated borrowing costs — one-month Treasury bill yields are at the highest since last October.

U.S. credit default swaps, derivatives investors often use to hedge exposure, have risen to one-year highs.

For a graphic on Spiking credit default swaps:

Energy costs, together with a dollar standing near one-year highs, will inevitably tighten global financing conditions, even as more central banks start to remove pandemic-time stimulus.

The Federal Reserve will almost certainly start unwinding stimulus from next month and New Zealand on Wednesday is expected to become the second developed country after Norway to hike rates.

Wall Street is attempting to claw back some of its losses from Wednesday when the Nasdaq plunged more than 2%. Futures are pointing higher there and European shares just opened firmer, although Japan’s Nikkei slipped to one-month lows.

Key developments that should provide more direction to markets on Tuesday:

–The Reserve Bank of Australia held their monetary policy unchanged in its Tuesday meeting, as expected.

–Japan’s services sector activity shrank for a 20th straight month in September

-UK passenger cars data

-BOE’s Dave Ramsden speaks

-ECB board member Fernandez Bollo speaks

-Fed speakers: Richmond Fed’s Thomas Barkin, Vice Chair for supervision Randal Quarles

-Euro zone PPI

-Romania central bank meets

-U.S. trade balance/ISM PMIs

(Reporting by Sujata Rao; editing by Dhara Ranasinghe)

Copyright 2021 Thomson Reuters.

All that is keeping U.S. 10-year bond yields well below three-month highs touched last week while sending up shortest-dated borrowing costs — one-month Treasury bill yields are at the highest since last October.


Top 7 Cryptocurrencies that Gained More than 100% in 2021


Check out the top 7 cryptocurrencies whose value has increased more than 100% in 2021.

Every investor today thinks of cryptocurrencies because of their volatile prices. Bitcoin is the first coin that comes to our mind when talking about crypto but a true investor will know the value of other cryptos as well. It’s not only bitcoin but other cryptocurrencies as well that have gained more than 100% in the crypto market. Let’s take a look at the top 7 cryptocurrencies that have gained more than 100% in 2021.

1. Bitcoin (BTC)

Market cap: Over $856 billion

Like most of the other cryptocurrencies, BTC operates on a blockchain, or a ledger logging transactions distributed across a network of thousands of computers. Bitcoin is the most popular and the highest valued crypto in the world, despite all its cons, if you have the funds to invest, buy Bitcoins. There’s no doubt about its growth and it’s a loyal option for many investors globally. Five years ago, you could buy Bitcoin for about $500. As of August 2021, a single Bitcoin’s price was over $45,000. It has gained about 8,900%.

2. Ethereum (ETH)

Market cap: Over $357 billion

After Bitcoin, this is the second most valuable crypto coin in the world. Both a cryptocurrency and a blockchain platform, Ethereum is the first one to introduce NFTs and smart contracts that automatically perform when conditions are met enabling developers to make potential applications based on it. The transaction speed of Ether is also pretty quick compared to Bitcoin.

Ethereum has also experienced tremendous growth. In just five years, its price went from about $11 to over $3,000, increasing roughly more than 27,000%.

3. Binance Coin (BNB)

Market cap: Over $70 billion

The Binance Coin is a form of cryptocurrency that you can use to trade and pay fees on Binance, one of the largest crypto exchange platforms in the world.

Binance Coin has expanded past merely facilitating trades on Binance’s exchange platform. Now, it can be used for trading, payment processing, or even booking travel arrangements. It can also be traded or exchanged for other forms of cryptocurrency, such as Ethereum or Bitcoin. Its price in 2017 was just $0.10; by August 2021, it had risen to over $419, a gain of almost 419,000%.

4. Cardano (ADA)

Market cap: Over $69 billion

Ethereum’s co-founder created Cardano with the ability of smart contracts. Compared to Ether, Cardano has the 3rd most advanced blockchain technology out of the lot, which makes this a secure investment. Cardano is notable for its early acceptance of proof-of-stake validation.

Cardano’s ADA token has had relatively medium growth compared to other major crypto coins. In 2017, ADA’s price was $0.02. As of August 2021, its price was $2.11. This is an increase of over 10,000%.

5. Ripple (XRP)

Market cap: Over $52 billion

Ripple was created with a unique thought in mind, to solve problems related to international payment transfers. Traditionally, international money transfer takes about a week but Ripple can make it happen in a few seconds. Out of all the cryptocurrencies right now, Ripple is one of the few that is being tested for real-world use.

At the beginning of 2017, the price of XRP was $0.006. As of August 2021, its price reached $1.14, equal to a gain of almost 19,000%.

6. Dogecoin (DOGE)

Market cap: Over $40 billion

Dogecoin has been a hot topic since the tweet by a billionaire, Elon Musk. Dogecoin rapidly became a prominent cryptocurrency option, because of the creative memes. Unlike many other cryptos, such as Bitcoin, there is no limit on the number of Dogecoins that can be created, which leaves the currency susceptible to devaluation as supply increases.

Dogecoin’s price in 2017 was $0.0002. By August 2021, its price was at $0.31—a 154,900% increase.

7. Polkadot (DOT)

Market cap: Over $25 billion

Cryptocurrencies may use any number of blockchains; Polkadot aims to integrate them by creating a cryptocurrency network that connects the various blockchains so they can work together. This integration may change how cryptocurrencies are managed and have stimulated magnificent growth since Polkadot’s launch in 2020.

Between September 2020 and August 2021, its price grew 774%, from $2.93 to $25.61.


RBI Governor Still Has Serious Concerns About Cryptocurrencies

RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das has revealed that the RBI still has “serious and major” reservations about cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and has conveyed those concerns to the government.

Speaking at an event, the Governor stated that it is up to the government to take a call on what needs to be done in the matter (regarding crypto) while adding that he would like to have “credible explanations and answers” on the value these instruments can bring to the Indian economy.

Under Regulatory Gaze

Cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, which are essentially private and are not regulated and are known for their volatility, have been under regulatory scrutiny in India. This comes despite their proliferation as an asset class.

India To Classify Bitcoin As An Asset Class

After El Salvador’s historic decision to adopt Bitcoin as legal tender bypassing the Bitcoin law, sources in India have revealed that the government could be planning a similar move in India. According to a report, the Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) is overseeing the regulations being drafted for the cryptocurrency sector, with Bitcoin being classified as an asset class.

In a whitepaper published by, Bitcoin’s adoption as an alternative asset class under India’s regulatory bodies is realistic due to the volatility in the crypto sector, the digital nature of cryptocurrencies, and projects developing rapidly, which does not make it ideal as an instrument to make payments.

India Planning To Test Digital Currency In December

In an interview with CNBC, RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das revealed that India plans to start testing the “digital rupee” in December. The testing would mainly focus on the security of digital currencies and the impact that they might have on monetary policy. RBI’s interest in launching a digital version of their fiat currencies is in line with other central banks around the world exploring and looking to launch their own digital currencies.

With testing scheduled to begin in December, the RBI will also study the impact of a CBDC on the monetary policy, currency in circulation, and other issues. Das commented,

“We are being extremely careful about it because it’s completely a new product, not just for RBI, but globally.”

Other countries are at different stages of testing their digital currencies.

RBI Clarifies Its Stance On Cryptocurrencies

The RBI has stated that it has not changed its position on cryptocurrencies and that it still has reservations about crypto, and these have been conveyed to the government. The RBI made the statement after leading Indian Bank HDFC warned its customers against dealing in cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin, Ethereum, etc., in a cautionary warning to customers.

The emails were sent in response to customers who had declared an interest in the transaction of cryptocurrencies. The bank cited a 2018 order from the Reserve Bank of India that stated that the transactions of cryptocurrencies were illegal in India. The RBI was obligated to intervene in the matter, stating that the circular was struck down by the Supreme Court of India and could not be cited by the bank to prevent cryptocurrency transactions.

Disclaimer: This article is provided for informational purposes only. It is not offered or intended to be used as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice.

India To Classify Bitcoin As An Asset Class


Stocks Look Cheap in Here

#stocks #earnings #valuations


“Corporate profits have risen so spectacularly, that when I analyze the valuations Vs the actual earnings reported later, stocks were about 20% cheaper than analysts thought when investors began piling into the S&P 500 Index in on 23 March 2020“– Paul Ebeling

That day was 1 of the greatest buying opportunities in modern times. And all the gainers that followed that Spring were moves by investors to bring valuations to where they should be.

Now, as the S&P 500 sets record after record, and Monday closed with a 100% gainer from that March 2020.

So, my analysis serves as a reminder to the naysayers, who once again insist the stock market is forming a bubble that is about to burst. At 21X forecast earnings, the S&P 500 sits near the highest multiple since the dot-com era. But my work shows that their profit estimates are too low again.

S&P 500 companies have beaten estimates by at least 15% for 5 Quarters in a row, driving their combined annual income to $183.91 a share by June.

Based on reported earnings, the benchmark index’s VirusCasedemic bottom looks like a better deal, trading at 15.4X future profits in April 2020. Going by analyst estimates back then, the multiple was 18.7. The realized future P/E was as low as 12 based on the price at the March 23 bottom.

If my work is an guide the market is siding with the Bullish outlook. Using historic P/Es as a rough indication of what kind of future earnings are embedded, a return to the 5-yr average multiple of 18.2 would mean the market now anticipates companies to earn $244/share in the next yr. And that equity strategist at Morgan Stanley, analyst calls for profits to reach $216/share in Y 2022 is too low.

Have a prosperous day, Keep the Faith!

Paul Ebeling

Paul A. Ebeling, a polymath, excels, in diverse fields of knowledge Including Pattern Recognition Analysis in Equities, Commodities and Foreign Exchange, and he is the author of “The Red Roadmaster’s Technical Report on the US Major Market Indices, a highly regarded, weekly financial market commentary. He is a philosopher, issuing insights on a wide range of subjects to over a million cohorts. An international audience of opinion makers, business leaders, and global organizations recognize Ebeling as an expert.


BlackBerry shares soar as trading volume surges


Reuters Thursday June 03, 2021 13:00

June 3 (Reuters) – U.S. shares in BlackBerry were up 18.0% on Thursday on track for its sixth straight day of gains and the stock was the second most heavily traded on U.S. exchanges as individual investors on Reddit’s Wallstreetbets forum turned their focus to the security software company.

BlackBerry shares last traded at $18.00 with 214,883,715 shares already changing hands an hour into the trading session compared with its 25-day moving average of 30.5 million.

Trading volume in the stock started to spike higher on May 26 with volume vaulting to 26.5 million shares that day. On Wednesday, it closed up 31% with 346 million shares changing hands, its busiest trading day since January 27.

Even before Thursday’s gains, BlackBerry stock had risen more than 77% in the last five sessions. It is up 174% year-to-date, which would be its biggest annual increase since 2003 if it holds. (Reporting By Sinéad Carew, Editing by Nick Zieminski)

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Kitco Metals Inc. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Kitco Metals Inc. nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Kitco Metals Inc. and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.


Oaktree Capital Join Growing List Of Investment Funds In Football After Reaching Inter Agreement, Italian Media Highlight

After striking a deal with Inter this week, Oaktree Capital have become the latest investment fund to become involved in football.

As reported in today’s newspaper edition of La Gazzetta dello Sport, the California-based fund join Elliott Management at AC Milan in taking a significant role in European football, whilst Merlyn Advisors are in place at French Ligue 1 club Lille and Oaktree themselves have a stake in Caen.

The ongoing coronavirus pandemic is suggested as a contributing factor, with elite-level football now facing a liquidity problem and the opportunity for investment funds to step in and plug the gap.

This allows them to provide instant funds to struggling football clubs with a view to earning quick returns with high interest rates or holding shares that are expected to become more valuable.

Minority investment by such funds is also highlighted in a number of top European clubs, with the Lindsell Train Group holding an 11% stake in Juventus, 19% in Celtic, and 28% in Manchester United, whilst IDG Capital have a 20% stake in Lyon.

This allows them to provide instant funds to struggling football clubs with a view to earning quick returns with high interest rates or holding shares that are expected to become more valuable.


Stock market news live updates: Stocks rise, shaking off capital gains tax increase concerns

Stocks rose Friday, steadying after selling off sharply on Thursday following a report that President Joe Biden was eyeing a proposal to increase the capital gains tax rate on wealthy individuals.

The S&P 500 added more than 1% to reach a record intraday high, after the index dropped 0.9% during the regular trading day for its worst session in five weeks. The blue-chip index ended just short of its record closing high. The Dow and Nasdaq also rose to reverse Thursday’s losses following the report, which suggested Biden was considering increasing the capital gains tax rate on those earning more than $1 million to 39.6%. The current base capital gains tax rate is 20%.

“I think the immediate reaction was probably a bit overdone. These proposals come out and you never know, especially with tax proposals, where we’ll end up. So it looks like an opening bid. I’m sure there will be intense lobbying from the investment community to adjust those numbers,” Kathy Jones, Charles Schwab chief fixed income strategist, told Yahoo Finance on Thursday. “But I think at the moment, when you have very high valuations in the market, anything that is bad news can spark a bit of a sell-off.”

Shares of Dow-component Intel (INTC) dropped after the chip-maker posted first-quarter data center revenues that missed expectations. Mattel (MAT) shares jumped after quarterly net sales surged far more than expected and the toy-maker raised its full-year outlook. Snap (SNAP) shares rose as quarterly revenue and daily active users extended 2020’s momentum and each sharply exceeded estimates.

Overall this week, stocks have hovered just below record levels as investors sought new equity drivers and more data on corporate earnings results and economic activity.

In another report that appeared to corroborate the pick-up in economic activity, Thursday’s initial unemployment claims report showed just 547,000 individuals filed for first-time unemployment benefits last week, marking an unexpected improvement to a new pandemic-era low. Next week’s advanced print on first-quarter gross domestic product and quarterly results from mega-cap companies including Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN) and Alphabet (GOOGL) and Facebook (FB), are expected to further underscore the latest pick-up in economic activity and corporate profits during the recovery from the pandemic.

“We’ve spent kind of the entire month of April struggling for direction in the markets. We’ve had 13 out of the 14 slowest days of the year in April. We’re just looking for new catalysts. I think the market has already priced in a lot of the surge in economic growth, in earnings growth,” Gabriela Santos, global market strategist for JPMorgan Asset Management, told Yahoo Finance. “And it just feels like we should consolidate, maybe even have a pullback before we continue that trend higher over 6 months and 12 months. So I think this is just part of the market struggling to find direction in the short term.”

“Specifically related to capital gains, this should not be a surprise,” sh added. “It was a part of President Biden’s agenda during the election and it was anticipated as part of the American Families Plan which should be presented next week and will be a discussion for the rest of the year. So [stocks are] just struggling to find direction in what otherwise we still consider to be a favorable backdrop for equities.”

4:02 p.m. ET: Stocks end higher, S&P 500 posts fresh intraday high

Here’s where the three major indexes ended Friday’s session:

  • S&P 500 (^GSPC): +45.22 points (+1.09%) to 4,180.2

  • Dow (^DJI): +227.92 points (+0.67%) to 34,043.82

  • Nasdaq (^IXIC): +198.39 points (+1.44%) to 14,016.81

3:06 p.m. ET: ‘We’re going to have our own form of Roaring Twenties’: Analyst

With economic activity already showing strong signs of picking up, the U.S. is on track for a resurgence akin to the Roaring Twenties after the Spanish Flu, according to Morgan Stanley managing director Kathy Entwistle.

“What we’re looking at is, the economy is opening up, we’re starting to see people put money to work again. We’ve all been locked down for a year, and we’re going to start seeing different things happening in the economy that are very positive. And it’s going to have a big impact on not only our investments but also the spending, which is going to grow investments into companies even further in a different way, whether it’s, you’re buying a stock or you’re buying a product or you’re out spending money on retail – it’s all going to make an impact,” Kathy Entwistle, Morgan Stanley managing director, told Yahoo Finance on Friday.

“We talked about what happened after the Spanish Flu, and it was the Roaring Twenties. I think we’re going to have our own form of Roaring Twenties coming up,” she added. “It will be a little bit different than 100 years ago, but it will still be something that is very energized, and we’re going to see money being spent.”

2:04 p.m. ET: Stocks extend gains, S&P 500 and Nasdaq add more than 1%

Here’s where markets were trading as of 2:04 p.m. ET:

  • S&P 500 (^GSPC): +47.6 points (+1.15%) to 4,182.58

  • Dow (^DJI): +225.84 points (+0.67%) to 34,041.74

  • Nasdaq (^IXIC): +217.21 points (+1.57%) to 14,035.11

  • Crude (CL=F): +$0.53 (+0.86%) to $61.96 a barrel

  • Gold (GC=F): -$5.10 (-0.29%) to $1,776.90 per ounce

  • 10-year Treasury (^TNX): +0.5 bps to yield 1.561%

10:00 a.m. ET: New home sales surge to the highest level since 2006 in March

New home sales jumped far more than expected in March to hit the highest level in 15 years, with housing demand still holding up even as mortgage rates began to creep higher this year.

New home sales surged 20.7% in March over February, the Commerce Department said Friday. A monthly rise of 14.2% was expected. The jump brought the seasonally adjusted annualized rate of new home sales to 1.021 million, or the highest level since 2006. A 40.2% monthly jump in new home sales in the South led advances, and sales also increased in the Northeast and Midwest on a month-over-month basis. New home sales in the West dropped by 30% in March over February, however.

In February, new home sales dropped by an upwardly revised 16.2% month-over-month, with harsh winter weather weighing on housing market activity during the period.

9:49 a.m. ET: Output in U.S. manufacturing, service sectors reach record highs in April: IHS Markit

Activity in both the private U.S. services and manufacturing sectors jumped to a record high in April, with the vaccine-enabled broad-based reopening helping fuel growth across the economy.

The U.S. manufacturing sector’s preliminary purchasing managers’ index for April rose to 60.6, from 59.1 in March, IHS Markit reported Friday. This marked the highest level since the firm began tracking the metric.

The U.S. services sector saw even faster growth, with the PMI rising to 63.1 from 60.4 in March. This was faster than the 61.5 expected, according to Bloomberg data, and also marked a series high.

“The upturn is broad-based: the service sector is growing at the fastest rate recorded in almost 12 years of survey history, and manufacturers reported one of the strongest expansions seen over the past seven years,” Chris Williamson, chief business economist for IHS Markit, said in a statement. “The latter was all the more impressive, as factories continued to be throttled by unprecedented supply chain delays, a consequence of which was a further steep rise in prices.”

“The worsening supply situation is a concern for the outlook, especially in relation to prices. Supply needs to improve to come into line with demand,” he added. “But with record supply chain delays driving a rise in backlogs of uncompleted work of a magnitude not surpassed for over seven years, firms appear to be struggling to boost operating capacity in the near-term.”

9:36 a.m. ET: Bitcoin, other cryptocurrency prices plunge amid capital gains tax jitters

Bitcoin (BTC-USD) prices plunged 11% to below $49,000 on Friday, extending the selloff in other risk assets seen Thursday as concerns over higher capital gains taxes weighed on assets that have experienced rapid price gains.

The largest cryptocurrency by market cap was on track to post its worst weekly performance in nearly two months amid the drawdown, according to data from Bloomberg. Ethereum (ETH-USD), the second largest cryptocurrency, also sank by 14%. Meme-based dogecoin (DOGE-USD), which saw a renascence this week that sent prices up sharply, dropped 19%.

9:30 a.m. ET: Stocks open mixed, Intel drags down Dow while S&P 500 and Nasdaq rise

The three major indexes opened mixed Friday morning, with a drop in shares of Intel pulling the Dow down by 70 points, or 0.2%. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq rose, however, to shake off steep losses from the prior session, sparked by concerns over an increase in the capital gains tax rate for wealthy individuals.

7:05 a.m. ET Friday: Stock futures rise, shaking off Thursday’s declines

Here’s where markets were trading ahead of the opening bell:

  • S&P 500 futures (ES=F): 4,138.25, up 10.5 points or 0.25%

  • Dow futures (YM=F): 33,777.00, up 69 points or 0.2%

  • Nasdaq futures (NQ=F): 13,780.25, up 30.00 points or 0.22%

  • Crude (CL=F): +$0.35 (+0.57%) to $61.78 a barrel

  • Gold (GC=F): +$5.70 (+0.32%) to $1,787.70 per ounce

  • 10-year Treasury (^TNX): -0.5 bps to yield 1.551%

6:02 p.m. ET Thursday: Stock futures edge lower

Here’s where markets were trading as the overnight session began.

  • S&P 500 futures (ES=F): 4,129.75, up 2 points or 0.05%

  • Dow futures (YM=F): 33,720.00, up 11 points or 0.03%

  • Nasdaq futures (NQ=F): 13,759.75, up 9.5 points or 0.07%

Health care workers walk with protective face masks on past the New York Stock Exchange, amid the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic, in the lower section of Manhattan in New York City, U.S., September 9, 2020.   REUTERS/Shannon Stapleton

Health care workers walk with protective face masks on past the New York Stock Exchange, amid the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic, in the lower section of Manhattan in New York City, U.S., September 9, 2020. REUTERS/Shannon Stapleton

Emily McCormick is a reporter for Yahoo Finance. Follow her on Twitter: @emily_mcck

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