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중국 경제 활동은 최근 몇 주 동안 약세를 보였고 홍콩 주식 시장은 그 결과 약세 영역에 시달렸습니다.
이는 중국에 대한 노출이 많은 미국 기업들에게도 나쁜 소식입니다. 상황이 악화될 경우 많은 S&P 500 기업이 먼저 공격 대상이 됩니다.
현재 진행 상황: 3년간의 심각한 팬데믹 제한 이후 12월 중국의 신속한 경제 재개는 글로벌 성장을 가속화할 촉매제로 환영받았습니다.
국제통화기금(IMF) 의 최근 전망에 따르면 억눌린 소비자 수요와 세계 2위 경제대국의 제조업 부활이 2023년 세계 성장의 약 35%를 견인할 것으로 예상된다 .
중국의 재개방은 긍정적인 영향을 미쳤습니다. 공장은 2월에 거의 11년 만에 최고의 달을 보냈고 중국 경제는 올해 1분기 에 4.5% 성장했습니다 . 그러나 최근 데이터에 따르면 그러한 긍정성은 수명이 짧았을 수 있습니다.
글로벌 수요 약화로 중국의 5월 수출은 전년 동기 대비 7.5% 감소했습니다 . 최근 데이터에 따르면 중국은 예상보다 나쁜 소비 지출, 제조업 둔화, 주택 판매 부진과 씨름하고 있습니다. 공식 데이터에 따르면 도시 지역의 청년 실업률이 20%에 달해 사상 최고치를 기록했습니다.
워싱턴과 베이징 사이의 지정학적 긴장이 고조되면서 투자자들은 겁에 질려 시장 변동성을 주도했습니다. 최근 Bain, Capvision, Mintz Group 및 Micron Technology (MU) 와 같은 미국 컨설팅 회사에 대한 단속은 다국적 기업을 걱정하게 만들었다고 니콜라스 번스 중국 주재 미국 대사가 수요일에 말했습니다.
“Investor views about China remain pessimistic, partly because of skepticism about near-term growth momentum and partly because of worries about the longer-term outlook,” wrote Goldman Sachs analysts in a note on Tuesday.
China, home to more than 1.4 billion people, saw its population drop in 2022 for the first time in more than 60 years. A shrinking population means lower consumption. When Beijing made the announcement in January, global stocks were roiled. The Dow fell by 300 points and the Nasdaq Golden Dragon Index, which follows Chinese firms on American exchanges, fell by 4%.
What it means for markets: US-based companies doing business in China stand to lose if the economy continues on a downward trajectory. Companies like Apple (AAPL), Intel (INTC), Ford (F) and Tesla (TSLA) have large manufacturing ties to the country. Others, like Starbucks (SBUX) and Nike (NKE), rely on Chinese consumers.
Earlier this year, Bank of America (BAC) compiled a list of the S&P 500 companies with the highest exposure to China. Topping the list was Las Vegas Sands (LVS), down nearly 6% this month, with 68% of its sales coming from China.
Qualcomm (QCOM), with a 67% exposure rate to China, issued disappointing forward guidance during earnings last month, citing China’s slow recovery.
Tesla, Intel, Nvidia (NVDA), Wynn Resorts (WYNN) and MGM Resorts (MGM) were also among the 25 S&P 500 companies with the most exposure to China.
Companies that generate more than 50% of sales outside of the United States saw an earnings decline rate of -10.2% in the first quarter of 2023, according to FactSet data. Companies that generated more than 50% of sales inside the United States, however, saw an earnings growth rate of 2.7%.
Meanwhile, Chinese stocks trading in Hong Kong, just barely avoided entering bear territory this month: The Hang Seng index was down 19.6% on May 31 from its January high and the Golden Dragon China Index has fallen 5.6% so far this year.
JD.com (JD), one of the largest Chinese companies trading in the United States, has fallen by nearly 36% this year. Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs Group have both lowered their forecasts for Chinese equity indexes.
The bright side: There’s still potential for upside, say economists. Analysts at Nomura and Barclays forecast Chinese economic growth of almost 8% for the second quarter.
Ayaz Ebrahim, JPMorgan Chase’s emerging markets and Asia Pacific equities portfolio manager, recently said on Bloomberg TV that the bank is adding more shares of Chinese stocks to its portfolio in a bet that the Chinese government will back floundering companies and boost valuations.
Wildfires in Canada have smothered large swaths of the United States in a thick plume of toxic smoke, leading to air quality warnings and advisories to stay inside. But fine particles from the smoke can make their way indoors. Air purifiers can be helpful with filtering out the pollution.
Searches on Google have increased 16 fold since Monday, according to Google trends.
Whirlpool (WHR), one of the largest home goods manufacturers in the world, has seen its stock surge 13.2% over the past five days and by 6.4% on Wednesday alone. The company says that its HEPA purifiers can remove up to 99.97% of bad particles from air.
Shares of Carrier Global (CARR), which makes residential and industrial air purifiers and HVAC units, have gained nearly 11% over the past five days.
Johnson Controls (JCI), which has a number of air filters on the market, has also seen its stock price soar. Shares are up by 8.5% over a five-day period.
The air purifier market is poised to grow as climate change increases air pollution and exacerbates breathing difficulties. A Market Insights report forecasts that the industry is expected to grow at an annual compound rate of 10.8% to $2.9 billion by 2025, and $4.8 billion by 2030.
Outdoor air pollution could cause 6 to 9 million premature deaths a year globally by 2060 and cost $2.6 trillion annually because of sick days, increased medical bills and reduced productivity, according to an Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development report.
Sir Ivan Menezes, who served for a decade as chief executive of the largest spirits maker in the world, has died at age 63 after a short but aggressive illness.
Diageo confirmed Menezes’ death on Wednesday, just two days after the company announced that he was stepping down as CEO following complications from an emergency surgery on an ulcer.
Menezes was born in 1959 in Pune, India. He held UK and US citizenship, as well as overseas citizenship for India. He joined Diageo at its creation in 1997 and became CEO in July 2013. He was knighted in January by King Charles III for services to Business and to Equality. Prior to his illness, he was expected to retire at the end of June. COO Debra Crew, who was set to become CEO on July 1, will take on the role of interim chief executive, effective immediately.
Menezes, who ran the $93 billion company behind Johnnie Walker whiskey, Smirnoff vodka, Guinness and Tanqueray gin, was well known as a champion of diversity in the workplace.
About 40% of Diageo’s senior positions are held by women and 37% of its leaders are ethnically diverse.
“Ivan was undoubtedly one of the finest leaders of his generation,” said Diageo chairman Javier Ferrán in a statement on Wednesday. “Ivan was there at the creation of Diageo and over 25 years, shaped Diageo to become one of the best performing, most trusted and respected consumer companies.”
Under his leadership, Diageo’s market value nearly doubled from $52 billion to $93 billion. Menezes also successfully guided Diageo through the Covid-19 pandemic, delivering a net sales value 36% larger in 2023 than in 2019, Diageo said.
Menezes는 또한 Tapestry의 비상임 이사, The Scotch Whisky Association 협의회 회장, Northwestern University의 Kellogg School of Management의 글로벌 자문 위원회 위원을 역임했습니다.
Source: https://www.cnn.com/2023/06/08/investing/premarket-stocks-trading/index.html