Is Mastercard Stock a Buy?

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Investing behind broad secular trends is a worthwhile strategy to undertake. Leading companies in a particular space can benefit from a rising tide as an industry continues to grow and become a larger part of the global economy. With this in mind, an extremely lucrative area to look at is digital payments.

Within this secular trend, Mastercard (MA -0.77%) is a popular ticker. The payments giant has seen its shares rise 102% over the past five years (as of this writing), crushing both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite Index during the same time. But what does the future hold? Put differently, is this blue chip stock a buy?

Here’s what investors need to know.

Mastercard has momentum on its side

While many companies struggle with a normalization period in a post-pandemic environment, as well as what appears to be a deteriorating macroeconomic situation, Mastercard’s operations keep humming along. During 2022, gross dollar volume (GDV), or the value of payments the business handles, jumped 5.9%. This helped net sales increase 18% year over year, with free cash flow (FCF) of $10.1 billion, up 17% year over year. Thanks to a resurgence of consumer interest in travel, Mastercard’s cross-border fees were up 30% year over year in the fourth quarter, a potential ongoing catalyst to pay attention to.

Since Mastercard collects a tiny fee from every transaction that runs across its payments network, the business is essentially an inflation hedge. If consumers are forced to spend more money on things, the gross dollar volume of the payments Mastercard processes can increase. And this favorable dynamic supports higher revenue.

Besides the recent success, which is a positive sign given the macro headwinds, the long-term opportunity is huge. According to McKinsey, a consultancy, the revenue opportunity in the global payments industry will be $3 trillion in 2026, up 43% from $2.1 trillion in 2021.

Mastercard’s revenue has increased with relative consistency at a compound annual rate of 11.6% between 2012 and 2022, a stellar increase, no doubt. If the company can simply continue doing what it has been doing throughout its history, its GDV, net revenue, and FCF are set to be markedly higher well into the future. This raises the chances that shares will be much higher as well.

Mastercard’s quality might justify the valuation

For such a dominant company with strong trailing returns, it’s not a surprise that Mastercard’s stock currently trades at a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 35, a substantial premium to the market. Mastercard is also more expensive than its chief rival, Visa, which trades at a P/E of 31 right now. For what it’s worth, Mastercard’s current valuation multiple is in line with its trailing-10-year average, and the stock has crushed the market over the past decade. This could indicate that shares should be trading at a premium valuation.

This might be a valid argument, given just how wonderful of a business Mastercard really is. If there was a ranking of the best companies in the world, this one would surely be among those at the top of the list. Margins are through the roof, growth has been impressive, and as I touched on earlier, Mastercard is ridiculously profitable on an FCF basis. And thanks to its minimal capital expenditures, it can continue to grow while returning excess capital back to shareholders. In the fourth quarter, Mastercard paid out $473 million in dividends and repurchased $2.4 billion of its stock. From a shareholder perspective, these are the kinds of things you like to see.

And looking at the competitive landscape, it’s difficult to find any looming threats to Mastercard’s dominance. Sure, Visa is the leading card payments network in the world, but both of these businesses have had a stranglehold on the industry for quite some time, competing in a rational manner so as to not threaten their powerful positions. The opportunity is so massive to continue ushering in a cashless society that there will be room for both Visa and Mastercard to keep up their gains going forward. That’s a great outlook to consider.

From a quality perspective, Mastercard is top-notch. Investors then need to consider if the valuation is worth it. Instead of buying your entire allocation to this stock at once, it might be a better idea to dollar-cost average into Mastercard over several months to take advantage of multiple entry prices. This is a company you definitely want in your portfolio for the long haul.

Neil Patel has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Mastercard and Visa. The Motley Fool recommends the following options: long January 2025 $370 calls on Mastercard and short January 2025 $380 calls on Mastercard. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

While many companies struggle with a normalization period in a post-pandemic environment, as well as what appears to be a deteriorating macroeconomic situation, Mastercard’s operations keep humming along. During 2022, gross dollar volume (GDV), or the value of payments the business handles, jumped 5.9%. This helped net sales increase 18% year over year, with free cash flow (FCF) of $10.1 billion, up 17% year over year. Thanks to a resurgence of consumer interest in travel, Mastercard’s cross-border fees were up 30% year over year in the fourth quarter, a potential ongoing catalyst to pay attention to.

Source: https://www.fool.com/investing/2023/03/25/is-mastercard-stock-a-buy/

Recessions, bank failures, and stagnant stock returns – experts see a new, difficult era dawning for markets

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  • Wall Street experts see a new era ahead for markets, marked by a more difficult investing environment.
  • Higher rates have burst the bubble in asset prices, while bank struggles threaten a wider downturn.
  • The new regime will be a far cry from the nearly ideal conditions investors navigated through the last decade.

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The idyllic market environment that dominated the past decade is over, and investors are at the dawn of a more difficult era, Wall Street experts say.

Warnings from commentators are coming after the stunning collapse of Silicon Valley Bank, which shook confidence in the US banking system after it was taken over by the FDIC earlier this month. More banks in both the US and Europe have since shown signs of weakness, sparking fears that a new financial crisis could soon unfold.

Observers have blamed the banking panic on the Federal Reserve’s aggressive rate hikes over the past year, which have dramatically raised the cost of borrowing, drained the market of liquidity, and put an end to the era of easy money.

While ultra-low interest rates and ample liquidity previously caused stocks to swoon to new highs, SVB’s collapse is a sign that bubble has burst, commentators say.

Now, they’re warning of a handful of obstacles in the new era that investors are going to be forced to navigate.

A coming recession

A downturn is likely in the cards, as turmoil from SVB’s downfall has significantly raised the odds of a recession, experts say. That’s because banking woes naturally slow the economy. Combine that with tightening from the Fed, and the recipe for a recession is there.

Central bankers have already raised interest rates over 1,700% over the last year to quell high prices. Despite the volatility in bank stocks, Fed officials raised interest rates another 25 basis-points this week, bringing the effective Fed funds rate to 4.75-5%.

That’s the highest interest rates have been since 2007, and the impact of SVB’s collapse is likely equivalent to another 50-75 basis points in rate hikes, Moody’s chief economist Mark Zandi estimated, meaning real interest rates are even more restrictive.

“That’s a pretty significant increase in interest rates, and I do think that puts the economy in jeopardy,” Zandi warned in a recent interview with CNBC.

Goldman Sachs also raised its odds of recession in 2023 from 25% to 35%, and bond markets have flashed signs of an incoming downturn as the inverted Treasury yield curve begins to de-invert. Though the inversion itself is a classic recession warning, the undoing of the inversion is a signal that a recession could come in the next four months, “Bond King” Jeffrey Gundlach said, calling it a “red alert recession signal” in a recent tweet.

More bank failures

More banking troubles could also be looming, as the recent crisis is actually a worldwide phenomenon that started long before the SVB began to stumble, according to Harvard economist Kenneth Rogoff.

Some experts have argued that SVB’s collapse was due to the bank’s uniquely high exposure to bonds, which have been weighed down heavily by rising interest rates. But the problem is likely more widespread, Rogoff warned, which will be exposed as rates tread higher.

“What happened is Silicon Valley Bank is maybe a little extreme in its naivete, but almost any kind of investment strategy that had illiquid assets — longer term assets — is going to lose money like this,” he said in a recent interview with Yahoo Finance. “I didn’t know it would [start] in the US banking sector.”

Though Fed Chair Powell and Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen have assured markets the US banking system is sound, neither is in a position to offer blanket insurance on all banking deposits, according to market veteran Ed Yardeni, who said the banking sector may be weaker than officials have suggested.

Luke Ellis, the CEO of the world’s largest public hedge fund, Man Group, said he anticipated a “significant’ number of banks failing within the next two years, adding that there were would similar deals like UBS’s emergency takeover of Credit Suisse.

Stagnant stock returns

Finally, stocks are unlikely to replicate the stunning returns over the last decade.

Nouriel Roubini, Wall Street’s “Dr. Doom” economist who has repeatedly warned of another financial crisis, predicted stocks and bonds would see dismal returns for years as inflation and interest rates remain high. Higher rates weigh heavily on both assets, he said, urging investors to flock to inflation hedges like gold and inflation indexed bonds.

Billionaire investor Leon Cooperman warned that the US was already going through a “textbook” financial crisis — meaning the S&P 500 won’t notch a new high for a long time.

​​”I think the 4,800 on the S&P will be a high that will stand for quite some time,” he said in an interview with Bloomberg, referring to high reached in January 2022. “I expect returns in the S&P to be very pedestrian.”

Stocks plummeted 20% in 2022 as the Fed began to raise interest rates, and, despite a blistering rally to start the year, the S&P 500 has already erased most of its gains in 2023.

Bearish market commentators are warning of an even steeper drop in equities ahead, with Morgan Stanley forecasting a 26% drop in the next few months, and legendary investor Jeremy Grantham sounding the alarm for a 50% crash in stocks.

Source: https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/recession-bank-failure-financial-crisis-interest-rates-new-era-market-2023-3?op=1

How XRP whales are preparing for Ripple win against SEC

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  • Ripple whales holding between 100 million and 1 billion XRP tokens have been accumulating the altcoin since March 7.
  • Daily active addresses on the XRP network have increased consistently over the past week, signaling rising activity in Ripple.
  • Experts are bullish on Ripple’s win with Messari CEO backing the payment giant in a recent tweet.

Ripple has garnered support from several experts and influencers on crypto Twitter in its legal battle with the US financial regulator, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). Messari CEO Ryan Selkis expressed his support for the payment giant in a recent tweet.

The recent XRP accumulation by large wallet investors has supported the bullish thesis for the altcoin.

Also read: This Avalanche upgrade could revive AVAX after recent crisis with Korean exchanges

XRP whales are accumulating the altcoin

Based on data from crypto intelligence tracker Santiment, large wallet investors in the XRP network holding between 100,000 and 1 billion XRP tokens have been consistently accumulating the altcoin since March 7.

As seen in the chart below, three different segments of the altcoin’s holders increased their XRP holdings over the past two weeks.

XRP price v. Whale accumulation in different segments

XRP price v. Whale accumulation in different segments

Typically, whale accumulation is considered a bullish sign for an asset. It supports the bullish thesis for Ripple with influencers and experts voicing their support for the payment giant’s win in the lawsuit.

Ryan Selkis, CEO of Messari recently tweeted:

I’ve been critical of Ripple in the past (various reasons), but more aligned with them than ever before.

Ripple should win the overreaching XRP-SEC case, and the XRP Ledger should be afforded the opportunity to compete fairly on digital payments infra globally.

Demand is there! https://t.co/fewaEami0p

— Ryan Selkis (@twobitidiot) March 21, 2023

Find out more about the SEC v. Ripple lawsuit here.

Another metric that supports XRP’s bullish potential is the rise in daily active addresses. After the spike observed on March 19, Daily Active Addresses on XRP network have climbed consistently, this points at higher utility and relevance of the chain among crypto market participants.

Daily Active Addresses on XRP

Daily Active Addresses on XRP

With on-chain metrics showing a sustained increase over the past two weeks, the narrative of Ripple’s win against the SEC has gained popularity. XRP holders are bullish on the cross-border remittance firm’s win against the US financial regulator.

Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.

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Also read: This Avalanche upgrade could revive AVAX after recent crisis with Korean exchanges

Source: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/how-xrp-whales-are-preparing-for-ripple-win-against-sec-202303240916

Why Carnival Stock Popped on Thursday

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What happened

Shares of cruise company stock Carnival (CCL 0.11%) slipped 1.4% on Wednesday, only to change course and sail ahead 5.4% on Thursday as of 11:35 a.m. ET.

The positive note from Stifel Nicolaus, which lies behind today’s rally, actually came out on Wednesday. But yesterday’s rejoicing was quickly snuffed out by later news of a new 0.25-percentage-point interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve, and by Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen’s statement that regulators are not considering expanding deposit insurance for bank customers. With so much bad news clamoring for attention, investors couldn’t really focus on Carnival’s good news yesterday.

But perhaps today they can.

So what

StreetInsider has the details, reporting that investment bank Stifel Nicolaus yesterday reiterated its buy rating, and its $18 price target, on Carnival stock. With gallows humor, Stifel admitted “we will probably be dead wrong” in predicting good news for Carnival investors next week. Nevertheless, the analyst is looking at Monday’s upcoming earnings report as a positive short-term trading opportunity for the stock.

Why?

Stifel cites “recent trading weakness in CCL shares” as its reason for optimism, arguing that “expectations are subdued, which we really like” — because it will make it easier for Carnival to exceed expectations when it reports on Monday.

Now what

And what are these expectations, exactly? According to Yahoo! Finance figures, most analysts are expecting Carnival to report a $0.60-per-share loss (subdued expectations, indeed!) on sales of $4.3 billion.

That sounds like bad news, but consider: Even if the news is as bad as analysts forecast, it would mean Carnival grew its revenue 167% year over year in the fourth quarter of 2022, and cut its losses by 64% year over year, saving more than $1 a share. That already would be kind of good news — and there’s the potential for Carnival to surprise investors to the upside if its losses aren’t as bad as feared.

A second way Carnival could make investors happy on Monday might be by following up Q4 earnings with strong guidance for 2023. There, a positive surprise is even more likely. Analysts are forecasting 73% sales growth for Carnival in 2023 ($21 billion), and a loss of only $0.08 per share. That prediction is already pretty close to breakeven. It wouldn’t take much — slowing interest hikes at the Fed perhaps, or a bit less discounting on ticket prices — to flip Carnival from a loss to a profit this year.

That’s what investors are hoping for. I’ll bet it’s what Stifel is hoping for, too.

Rich Smith has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool recommends Carnival Corp. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

StreetInsider has the details, reporting that investment bank Stifel Nicolaus yesterday reiterated its buy rating, and its $18 price target, on Carnival stock. With gallows humor, Stifel admitted “we will probably be dead wrong” in predicting good news for Carnival investors next week. Nevertheless, the analyst is looking at Monday’s upcoming earnings report as a positive short-term trading opportunity for the stock.

Source: https://www.fool.com/investing/2023/03/23/why-carnival-stock-popped-on-thursday/

Cryptocurrency Market News – Bitcoin and Altcoins News

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Source: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news?q=&hPP=15&idx=FxsIndexPro&p=0&dFR[Tags][0]=Sushiswap

Rivian Stock Is Trading Terribly. Calls Grow for an Activist.

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March 22, 2023 10:37 am ET

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Rivian Automotive stock has been trading far worse than most of its peers. Sales and products aren’t the problem. It’s spending. The company needs a plan to control cash and improve investor sentiment. Wall Street has some advice.

Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas pointed out in a report Wednesday that recent Rivian (ticker: RIVN) stock levels were trading below their cash value. Rivian ended the year with about $13 in cash a share and added another $1.40 in cash a share by selling bonds.

Source: https://www.barrons.com/articles/rivian-stock-trading-activist-1086a9ee

US prosecutors charge crypto Terra founder Do Kwon with fraud following his Montenegro arrest

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  • US fraud prosecutors charged Terraform Labs CEO Do Kwon hours after his arrest in Montenegro.
  • Kwon created two cryptocurrencies TerraUSD and its sister affiliate Luna that lost $40B last year.
  • He now faces an eight-count indictment, including securities and commodities fraud and conspiracy.

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Do Kwon, Terraform Labs CEO and creator of the TerraUSD stablecoin, has been charged with fraud by US prosecutors hours after his arrest in Montenegro on Thursday.

Prosecutors at the US attorney’s office in New York have slapped an eight-count indictment against Kwon, including securities fraud, wire fraud, commodities fraud and conspiracy, according to a Reuters report.

The criminal case comes after the US Securities and Exchange Commission charged Kwon and Terraform Labs with alleged fraud last month. He was already a fugitive from an arrest warrant issued by authorities in his native country South Korea.

Kwon was the crypto entrepreneur behind the two digital currencies TerraUSD and its free-floating sister affiliate Luna that lost upward of $40 billion last year. The collapse of his Singapore-based Terraform Labs and that of the TerraUSD stablecoin sparked a broader crypto sell-off and wreaked havoc in the digital asset sector.

If US prosecutors extradite Kwon to New York, he would face prosecution by the same office who is looking over a criminal case against FTX c0-founder Sam Bankman-Friend, who was transferred from the Bahamas to face fraud charges after his crypto empire collapsed.

Source: https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/currencies/terra-founder-do-kwon-charged-fraud-crypto-us-prosecutors-terraform-2023-3?op=1

US stocks close higher as markets assess fresh bank woes and recession fears

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  • US stocks ended higher Friday, capping off a week of Fed moves and more bank fears.
  • The 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields both notched their lowest levels in six months.
  • Deutsche Bank stock plunged as a new round of bank jitters hit the market in the wake of SVB and CS failures.

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US stocks ended higher on Friday as investors rallied to end the day in the green, throwing off new banking fears out of Europe.

All three major indexes ended the day higher, capping off another tumultuous week for markets.

Deutsche Bank stock plunge and unsettled financial markets early in the day. The slide came as bets on the German lender defaulting on its debts soared, with the price of credit default swaps linked to its bonds posting their largest-ever single-day jump.

Yields on key Treasury bonds were down. The 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields tumbled to six-month lows as investors wager the Federal Reserve’ interest rate hikes could soon be over, and the central bank could cut rates as the economy slows.

“Confidence is fragile, market volatility is likely to stay high, and policymakers may have to go further to make sure faith in the global financial system stays solid,” Mark Haefele, chief investment officer at UBS Wealth Management. said in a note on Friday.

Haefele added: “Financial conditions are also likely to tighten, which increases the risk of a hard landing for the economy, even if central banks ease off on interest-rate hikes.”

Here’s where US indexes stood shortly after the close at 4:00 p.m. on Friday:

Here’s what happened today:

In commodities, bonds and crypto:

  • West Texas Intermediate crude oil fell 1% to $69.24 per barrel. Brent crude, oil’s international benchmark, dropped 1.2% to $74.99.
  • Gold fell 0.7% to $1,980 per ounce.
  • The yield on the 10-year Treasury tumbled to 3.37%.
  • Bitcoin fell 2% to $27,836.

Get the latest Gold price here.

Source: https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-news-today-wall-street-bonds-bank-crisis-equities-2023-3?op=1

Yahoo fait partie de la famille de marques Yahoo.

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Nous, Yahoo, faisons partie de la famille de marques Yahoo.

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Source: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/1-mexico-says-abide-trade-141621122.html

Cryptocurrencies Price Prediction: Nasdaq, Polkadot & Cryptos — American Wrap 24 March

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Nasdaq will be the newest major financial firm to enter the crypto space to try its hand at the market. While most investors and analysts look at it as a positive since it represents the involvement of institutional investors, some see it as a threat to what cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum stand for.

Polkadot (DOT) price sees a binary shift in sentiment this Friday as bulls throw in the towel. With the big Gaming Developers Conference (GDC) ending on Friday, no real victories or important headlines have emerged. Big expectations were that altcoins would come on the front foot and would see their price action explode to the upside, which is clearly not the case and is sending price action lower now.

DOT/USD 4-H chart

Bitcoin and Ethereum prices nosedived immediately in response to the Federal Reserve’s rate hike before making a recovery. The two large assets by market capitalization are back in the green after the short-lived correction. This fueled a bullish sentiment among altcoin holders.

Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.

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Bitcoin and Ethereum prices nosedived immediately in response to the Federal Reserve’s rate hike before making a recovery. The two large assets by market capitalization are back in the green after the short-lived correction. This fueled a bullish sentiment among altcoin holders.

Source: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/cryptocurrencies-price-prediction-nasdaq-polkadot-cryptos-american-wrap-24-march-202303241656