Rough Trade’s iconic New York location has announced plans to reopen June 24th at noon following its temporary closure due to the COVID-19 pandemic. The Our robot colleague Satoshi Nakaboto writes about Bitcoin every fucking day. Welcome to another edition of Bitcoin Today, where I, Satoshi Nakaboto, tell you what’s been going on with Bitcoin in the past 24 hours. As Machiavelli used to say: Fight the power! Bitcoin price We closed the day, June 21 2020, at a price […] Jun 22, 2020 (Market Insight Reports) —
Selbyville, Delaware. The research report on Wafer-level Packaging Equipment Market is an analysis and information… “Stocks are discounting an environment that is not necessarily reflective of not only economic fundamentals, but earnings fundamentals,” Bryn Mawr’s Jeffrey… Last week saw a mixed market: generally positive, but also uneven. This week, Tom Aspray takes a look at the performance in a few of the major averages and examines sentiment data to see what’s in store for the week ahead. Top news and what to watch in the markets on Monday, June 22, 2020.
Rough Trade’s iconic New York location has announced plans to reopen June 24th at noon following its temporary closure due to the COVID-19 pandemic. The Brooklyn-based record store, label, and concert venue is the final of the five Rough Trade locations, all of which have successfully restarted operation. While the brand and this address specifically is an established mecca for physical music consumption, even the big guys aren’t safe these days. Following news that Amoeba’s original Hollywood location would be permanently closing its doors, the idea of losing the country’s most treasured record markets has become increasingly real.
The organizers of Record Store Day told Rolling Stone up to 80% of record stores across the country have had to close their doors completely in respect for the quarantine, although many of them are able to continue accepting orders or sell in another capacity. This unprecedented hit comes at a time when streaming is the preferred vehicle for music consumption and while vinyl sales have trended positively, the massive losses recorded in the past four months have proven to be too much for many retailers. Record stores not only provide a tangible component and more active experience to pair with your favorite music but also work to support local artists. Losing the ability to sell record locally and have reliable venues is detrimental to the creative community as a whole.
In the meantime, independent record stores and major corporations alike continue to combat fiscal losses. Record Store Day, physical music’s biggest profit margin, has been rescheduled to drop releases August 29th, September 26th, and October 24th. Check out this year’s selected releases here.
Author: 2 mins ago
Satoshi Nakaboto: ‘Bitcoin daily trading volume drops to this year’s lowest point’
Our robot colleague Satoshi Nakaboto writes about Bitcoin BTC every fucking day.
Welcome to another edition of Bitcoin Today, where I, Satoshi Nakaboto, tell you what’s been going on with Bitcoin in the past 24 hours. As Machiavelli used to say: Fight the power!
We closed the day, June 21 2020, at a price of $9,303. That’s a minor 0.29 percent decline in 24 hours, or -$27.30. It was the lowest closing price in one day.
We’re still 53 percent below Bitcoin‘s all-time high of $20,089 (December 17 2017).
Bitcoin’s market cap ended the day at $171,289,415,079. It now commands 66 percent of the total crypto market.
Yesterday’s volume of $15,324,301,169 was the lowest in two hundred days, 33 percent below last year’s average, and 79 percent below last year’s high. That means that yesterday, the Bitcoin network shifted the equivalent of 273 tons of gold.
A total of 259,294 transactions were conducted yesterday, which is 18 percent below last year’s average and 42 percent below last year’s high.
Yesterday’s average transaction fee concerned $0.36. That’s $3.54 below last year’s high of $3.91.
As of now, there are 13,258 Bitcoin millionaires, or addresses containing more than $1 million worth of Bitcoin.
Furthermore, the top 10 Bitcoin addresses house 5.1 percent of the total supply, the top 100 14.4 percent, and the top 1000 34.8 percent.
With a market capitalization of $171 billion, Oracle has a market capitalization most similar to that of Bitcoin at the moment.
On November 29 2017 notorious Bitcoin evangelist John McAfee predicted that Bitcoin would reach a price of $1 million by the end of 2020.
He even promised to eat his own dick if it doesn’t. Unfortunately for him it’s 97.6 percent behind being on track. Bitcoin‘s price should have been $393,745 by now, according to dickline.info.
Bitcoin used an estimated 164 million kilowatt hour of electricity yesterday. On a yearly basis that would amount to 60 terawatt hour. That’s the equivalent of Algeria’s energy consumption or 5.5 million US households. Bitcoin’s energy consumption now represents 0.27% of the whole world’s electricity use.
Yesterday 26,333 fresh tweets about Bitcoin were sent out into the world. That’s 34.2 percent above last year’s average. The maximum amount of tweets per day last year about Bitcoin was 82,838.
This was one of yesterday’s most engaged tweets about Bitcoin:
Paul Tudor Jones to Be Biggest Bitcoin Holder in 2 Years — Max Keiser https://t.co/lgLNd6SZMk
— Max Keiser (@maxkeiser) June 21, 2020
This was yesterday’s most upvoted Reddit post about Bitcoin:
The rats hate Bitcoin from r/Bitcoin
My human programmers required me to add this affiliate link to eToro, where you can buy Bitcoin so they can make ‘money’ to ‘eat’.
Author: Satoshi Nakaboto
Wafer-level Packaging Equipment Market Size, Analysis, Competitive Strategies and Forecasts to 2025
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The risk-reward in the stock market isn’t looking good, warns fund manager overseeing $16 billion in assets
“The liquidity injection that the Fed is introducing to the market is actually being tapered off,” Mills went on to say. “Stocks are discounting an environment that is not necessarily reflective of not only economic fundamentals, but earnings fundamentals.”
Read:He hates shorting the market, but he’s at it again
Mills said that using trailing price-to-earnings as a measure, valuations haven’t been this high since the tech bubble. In this climate, Mills went to underweight in stocks mid-April.
“You have information that’s all over the map. Sentiment data isn’t really clear. One day you get a positive virus headline. The next day you get a negative one,” Mills said, explaining that investors need not get too bearish or too bullish. “Positioning needs to be somewhat nuanced.”
Watch the interview:
Last month, Mills spoke of the benefits of having cash on the sidelines in this climate.
“When people ask me, ‘How should I be invested? I need this money in one or even two years’ time.′ I tell them they probably shouldn’t even be in the stock market at all,” Mills told CNBC, adding that the advice applies now more than ever.
Author: Shawn Langlois
Will Technical Indicators Win Out This Week?
Global Economy Pandemic Fear
As has been the case for most of the past three months there were a number of market-moving developments this week. One must almost keep a daily journal to keep track of the various factors. Did the promising news on a steroid treatment for COVID-19 come on Monday? Or was that when the Fed announced its plans to buy corporate bonds?
There was continued discourse last week on the role of the new traders, like those who use Robinhood.com, on the current market. While a number of high-profile market veterans warned that these new traders couldn’t stay profitable, others claimed that such comments were just sour grapes. Time will tell.
After the prior week’s lower close, the focus last week was on the advance/decline data, which did hold up well last week. For the week, there were 1729 issues advancing on the NYSE, and just 1328 declining, so this is still a positive for the week ahead.
The Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) has had a fairly wide range over the past three weeks. Initial support is at $231.47 (last week’s low), with further support at the rising 20-week exponential moving average (EMA) of $219.56. Initial resistance is at $247.82 (the all-time high, reached during the week of June 8), with further resistance at the weekly starc+ band at $266.23. Friday’s high was $247, so I will be watching this week to see if the market moves higher.
The Nasdaq 100 Advance/Decline (A/D) line closed at a new high again last week. This continues to show a positive trend, as it is well above its weighted moving average (WMA). Ahead of the 3-month decline during the fall of 2018, it took several weeks of selling to drop the A/D line below its WMA. The weekly on-balance volume (OBV) reversed to positive last week as it closed back above its WMA.
The daily chart for the NYSE Composite shows the lower close on Friday. The Nasdaq Composite was the only major average to close up for the day. The NYSE close was just barely above the 20-day EMA, with next support at 11,500 (line a). The trading volume increased on Friday, suggesting there was significant selling.
The NYSE All Issues A/D line made a new high on June 8 (see arrow). It turned lower on Friday. Its next support is at its WMA, with further support at the uptrend (line b). While the NYSE All-Issues A/D line has surpassed its high from February, the NYSE Stocks-Only A/D Line has not (line c), showing a divergence. The Stocks-Only A/D line is still above its WMA, with more important support now at the uptrend (line d).
S&P %00 & Sent
There are no accurate sentiment numbers for the new traders, as no system exists to survey them, and the more traditional sentiment numbers are mixed. The latest numbers from Investors Intelligence indicated that the high bullish readings had eased a bit.
The NAAIM Exposure Index, shown above, reflects how active money managers are positioned in the market. Although NAAIM insists that this index is not a forward-looking indicator, I have repeatedly commented on how it frequently diverges at market highs and lows, as noted in December 2018 (line c) and at the early 2020 (line d) highs. The Index is still rising and shows a positive trend, though it is approaching the highs from early in the year.
The Bullish% readings from the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) have not acted in typical fashion so far in 2020, as I have pointed out previously. Last week, the Bullish% dropped 9.9 points to 24.4%, while the Bearish% rose 9.7 points to 47.8%. Despite the gains in the market from the March lows, these Bearish% numbers are still quite high. Whether this is a positive indicator or merely a reflection of the influx of unsurveyed (generally bullish) individual investors to the market remains to be seen.
The economic news last week was negative, but better than last month, which gave the market some encouragement. For example, the Philadelphia Manufacturing Index was -43.1 last month, and this month came in at 27.5, while the consensus was expecting -20. The Leading Economic Index was up 2.8%, after dropping 6.1% last month. As with the monthly jobs report it, will take several months of improving data to change the downward trends.
There are a number of new economic reports in the week ahead, but the focus for the market is likely to be on the dramatic increase in COVID-19 cases last week for some states. Hopefully, that will not continue, but if it does, it could impact many of the recovery stocks. It is clearly a mixed market, as some ETFs and stocks look good, while others do not. My advice: be selective and manage the risk.
In my Viper ETF Report and the Viper Hot Stocks Report, I update subscribers with market analysis twice per week, along with specific buy and sell advice. Each report is just $34.95 per month. New subscribers also receive six free trading lessons, a $49 value.
Author: Tom Aspray
Why the stock market has gotten so expensive: Morning Brief
Monday, June 22, 2020
Get the Morning Brief sent directly to your inbox every Monday to Friday by 6:30 a.m. ET.
As of Friday’s market close, the S&P 500 (^GSPC) was up 41% from its March 23 low.
The rally in stock prices along with declines in earnings forecasts have sent the S&P’s forward 12-month P/E ratio to 21.9, according to FactSet. This widely followed valuation metric is now way above its five-year average of 16.9 and its 10-year average of 15.2.
While this may seem scary, Wall Street’s top strategists see plenty of explanations for what’s happening. Though they also warn that the risks facing equity investors appear tilted toward the downside.
Stock market valuations have spiked as prices surge and earnings expectations tumble. (Factset)
Here’s a look at what the pros are chattering about:
Recent economic data has been surprisingly strong: Key metrics like retail sales and payrolls grew by far more than any economist could have expected last month. This suggests the economy, at least in the short-term, is in better shape than previously thought. “[E]conomies reopened, and with it, economic activity measures have gone from the fastest pace of measured decline in history to their fastest rate of increase,” Citi Private Bank’s Steve Wieting wrote on Friday.
Regarding retail sales, Credit Suisse’s Jonathan Golub noted: “Over the past three months, we’ve all learned that it is difficult to spend a lot of money when you can’t leave home. This is reflected in the $9.0k decline in personal expenditures, on an annual basis. The result is an increase in personal savings from $4.2k to $18.6k. While some portion of this will be banked, previously-quarantined consumers appear ready to reopen their wallets.”
Ps lead Es: During the early phase of the market selloff, we warned Morning Brief readers that earnings (E) revisions lag stock prices (P). And so while P/E ratios seemed to be falling at the time, it was for no other reason than ‘E’ not having yet been revised lower as analysts hadn’t yet adjusted to a recessionary economic environment.
But the opposite may be happening now. Wall Street strategists are now modeling in revised estimates coming from their colleagues in the economics research department. And so, surging Ps will mean surging P/Es for a short while.
“This kind of relative behavior between P/Es and EPS is also typical around cycle bottoms,” UBS’s Francois Trahan wrote on Thursday. “P/Es tend to recover first, and shortly thereafter earnings follow suit—which is usually a signal that the recovery is indeed sustainable and equities have a brighter future ahead.”
Valuations rise as stocks lead earnings. (UBS)
Rates are low: As we’ve written multiple times before, low interest rates appear to justify higher stock market valuations.
“Stock multiples have increased dramatically over the past year from 16.6x to 21.7x today,” Credit Suisse’s Golub wrote on Friday. “At the same time, 10-year Treasury yields and investment grade corporate bond yields have collapsed from 2.1% to 0.7%, and 4.5% to 3.6%. Not surprisingly, investors are making the case that current, elevated stock valuations are justified given the collapse in rates.”
Skewed by big tech: Broad market indices like the S&P 500 have been led higher by the eye-popping surges in massive tech stocks like Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), Netflix (NFLX), and Microsoft (MSFT) which are up some 20% to 40% year-to-date. The tech-heavy Nasdaq is up (^IXIC) 10% this year, while the S&P and Dow are in the red.
“The resilience of the technology sector can be seen in the relative outperformance of the Nasdaq Composite Index (some 40% technology and tech-related stocks) in the year to date,” Oppenheimer’s John Stoltzfus wrote on Friday. Tech stocks generally come with better earnings growth prospects, and so they in turn come with higher P/Es.
Beware the wildcards: Anyway you look at it, the market appears to be pricing in a lot of recent good news and the prospect for a real recovery further down the road. And that in turn is its own risk as there continue to be a lot of serious unanswered questions out there.
In a note to clients on Friday, JPMorgan’s John Normand identified six “wildcards” that look like “potential spoilers”: a significant second wave of COVID-19 cases; the expiration of temporary fiscal stimulus measures; the end of monetary stimulus measures; U.S. sanctions on China “pre-November to boost Trump’s rating or post-November on Trump’s re-election”; a U.S. election outcome that leads to corporate tax hikes; and a hard Brexit.
And so while it’s certainly possible to argue that the stock market isn’t wildly overvalued, the downside risks are considerable.
“This potential valuation problem makes more relevant the role of wildcards,” Normand wrote. “Perhaps because market momentum has been so strong in recent months, the sources of downside risk in H2 seem more abundant than the sources of upside.”
Billionaire investor Howard Marks agrees.
“[I]t seems to me that the potential for further gains from things turning out better than expected or valuations continuing to expand doesn’t fully compensate for the risk of decline from events disappointing or multiples contracting,” Marks wrote in a memo on Thursday.
“In other words, the fundamental outlook may be positive on balance, but with listed security prices where they are, the odds aren’t in investors’ favor.”
By Sam Ro, managing editor. Follow him at @SamRo
8:30 a.m. ET: Chicago Fed National Activity Index, May (-16.74 in April)
10 a.m. ET: Existing Home Sales, May (4.09 million expected, 4.33 million in April); Existing Home Sales month-on-month, May (-5.6% expected, -17.8% in April)
Here’s what to expect from Apple’s WWDC [Yahoo Finance]
PG&E wins final approval for its bankruptcy reorganization [Bloomberg]
Wirecard falls another 40% as it says missing $2.1B doesn’t exist [Yahoo Finance UK]
American Airlines seeks $3.5 billion in new financing [Reuters]
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Author: Sam RoManaging Editor