Last Updated: May 17, 2020, 04.53 PM IST
(Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this column are that of the writer. The facts and opinions expressed here do not reflect the views of www.economictimes.com.)
Trade setup: Wait for some consolidation before buying
Trade setup: Weak signals all over; stick to defensives, avoid purchases
Trade setup: Nifty oversold, but sustainable pullback unlikely
Trade Setup: Multiple signs hint at more weakness ahead; tread safely
Trade setup: Nifty may see technical pullback; but directional bias bearish
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Posted on May 18, 2020
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Posted on May 7, 2020
GBPUSD News and Forecast
The virus crisis is not over, but the Brexit sage – willfully forgotten by many traders – is having a growing impact on the pound.
Both EU Chief Negotiator Michel Barnier and his British counterpart David Frost acknowledged difficulties in talks. Brussels wants the UK to agree to accept EU rules in return for easy access to the single market, while London rejects the idea. The clock is ticking down to June 2, the deadline at which both sides can ask for an extension to the transition period.
Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s government has repeatedly rejected prolonging the implementation period beyond year-end. Investors fear that the UK would default to World Trade Organization rules – unfavorable terms. The news on Friday sent sterling down, and it has since failed to recover.
The pound has also been punished by growing speculation about negative interest rates. Andy Haldane, Chief Economist at the Bank of England, left the door open to such a move and to other steps in an interview over the weekend. The BOE may first opt to expand its Quantitative Easing program, pledging to buy an additional £100 billion worth of bonds, according to a Bloomberg survey.
The third reason for sterling’s suffering has been the UK’s ongoing lockdown – and issues of getting out of it. The contact tracing application that is tested on the Isle of Wight has had issues while concerns about safety at work have also been present in the UK press.
There is also the reason for optimism as Oxford University is advancing with its trials of a potential vaccine for COVID-19. Moreover, GSK, a large British pharmaceutical company, said it would ramp up preparations for manufacturing such immunization and would prioritize the UK.
Across the pond, the safe-haven dollar has been stable despite growing Sino-American tensions. The world’s largest economies have been tussling over Huawei’s operations. The Chinese telecom behemoth has been suspected of working too closely with the Communist Party.
Peter Navarro, a senior White House adviser, claimed that China was sending infected people on planes to spread the disease. Hu Xijin, editor of the nationalist Global Times – considered a mouthpiece of Beijing – tweeted that he should boost its spending on nuclear arms.
The greenback also seems to shrug off stark warnings by Jerome Powell, Chairman of the Federal Reserve. The world’s most powerful central banker said that without a vaccine, the economy would not fully recover and added that unemployment could reach 25%.
US retail sales tumbled by 16.4% in April, worse than expected, while consumer sentiment for May beat expectations and bounced off the lows.
More: US April Retail Sales: Is there a rebound ahead?
These factors may boost the dollar, but as long as stocks are on the rise, GBP/USD is set to move mostly in response to UK developments.
Author: By FXStreet Team
Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) Stock Price, Quote, History & News – Yahoo Finance
GBP/USD: Trading in one month lows – Commerzbank
GBP/USD trades in one month lows, slides towards the 1.2000 zone, Axel Rudolph from Commerzbank reports.
“GBP/USD trades in one month lows and nears the 50% retracement of the March-to-April advance at 1.2030 as well as the minor psychological 1.2000 mark. Below it lie the September low at 1.1958 and the March 20 high at 1.1935.”
“Fibonacci support en route below 1.2030 is found at 1.1883 and at 1.1675.”
“Near-term rallies should find initial resistance at the 1.2247 April 21st low with further resistance coming in at the 1.2468 May 8 th high ahead of the 200-day ma at 1.2655.”
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